Contradict the "dead bulls" Goldman Sachs! Damo and UBS both lowered their oil price expectations

Affected by concerns about falling crude oil demand, Morgan Stanley and UBS both lowered their oil price forecasts
for this year.

Morgan Stanley analyst Martijn Rats said in the latest research report that due to the sharp slowdown in inflation and demand, the future price forecast for Brent crude oil was lowered, and the oil price forecast for the third quarter of this year was lowered by $12 to $98 / barrel, and the oil price forecast for the fourth quarter was lowered by $5 to $95 / barrel
.

UBS takes a similar view
.
Giovanni Staunov, an analyst at the bank, said that the global rebound of the epidemic will delay the recovery of crude oil demand, while Russian crude oil exports are more resilient than expected, with a large amount of crude oil flowing into European countries
such as Italy.
Under the dual impact of the epidemic and Russian crude oil exports, the bank lowered the price forecast of Brent crude oil by $15 to $110 / barrel
at the end of 2022.

Recession fears are now one of
the key reasons to be bearish on oil prices.

Citi said in the report that at present, new orders in the global manufacturing industry are decreasing, demand has been cyclically weak, and commodity pricing will have some room to
fall.
Against the backdrop of the global recession and geopolitical tensions, even as Russia's oil production declines, demand is still hit, oil supply and SPR (U.
S.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve) release are growing, and the probability of oil prices falling has increased from 10% to 25%.

Citi forecasts that if the global economy moves further into recession, production costs tend to fall further as profits fall and supply shrinks, and international oil prices are likely to fall to around
$60 a barrel.

The bearish views of Damo and Citi stand in stark contrast
to the optimism of Goldman Sachs.

In Goldman Sachs' view, the bull market for commodities is not exhausted, and it may still be in the "intermission" stage of this round of commodity super cycle, and a new wave of bull market may usher in an outbreak at the end of the year, and the S&P GSCI Commodity Index will rise by 23.
4%
before the end of the year.

Goldman Sachs believes that the risk of a global recession is currently overblown
.
From a cross-asset perspective, equities could be hit by a double whammy, with high inflation and the Fed more likely to surprise
markets on the hawkish side.
In an environment of energy crisis and tight spot supply, commodities will be the most suitable assets
to hold.