Continuous plastic shock lower short-term may have rebound demand

News: According to Longzhong according to the maintenance of the device, it is expected that the estimated output of polyethylene in China in June will be 1.
3771 million tons/month, down 74,400 tons/month from the previous month (output of 1.
4515 million tons/month
).
A decrease of 5.
13%.

Among them, the estimated output of low pressure is 589,000 tons/month, down 53,200 tons/month from the previous month (output of 642,200 tons/month
).
The estimated output of high pressure is 227,900 tons/month, down 00,200 tons/month from the previous month (output of 228,100 tons/month
).
The linear forecast production is 560,100 tons/month, down 21,100 tons/month from the previous month (581,200 tons/month
).

Spot market: The domestic polyethylene market continues to decline
.
In terms of enterprises, the linear and high-pressure opening price of the main regional sales company was partially reduced, with a range of about 100 yuan / ton
.
Linear futures are lower, some of the low-priced resources in the early stage flow back to the market, spot merchants are cautious, risk aversion is more active to reduce the warehouse, the downstream is temporarily based on small orders just need to purchase, and the focus of actual transaction is downward
.
As of the morning close, North China was 50-100 yuan / ton lower; East China fell by about 100 yuan / ton; South China is 50-100 yuan / ton
lower.

Warehouse receipt inventory: exchange warehouse receipts reported 1656 lots, intraday -6 lots; In the historical median zone
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions in the main contract are 194812 lots, -846 lots, short positions are 248246 lots, -5875 lots, net long positions are -53434 lots, -5875 lots
.

Summary: The heavy decline in crude oil, the intensification of the Sino-US trade war, and the downstream demand for plastics generally suppress the price of continuous plastics, but the price of LLDPE is supported by the increase in equipment maintenance
.
Technically, the L1909 contract fluctuated lower, the trading volume shrank sharply, and the position increased slightly, and the main position showed that the main position reduction of the long party was less than the main position reduction force of the short side, and the long party was superior
.
The indicator MACD hovered low, the green bar appeared, but there were signs of divergence, and the KDJ indicator was also slightly retreating, and there were also signs of
divergence.
Shows signs
of overselling in the short term.
Operationally, there may be a rebound demand in the short term, but the weakness in the form is still the same, and investors can hold short orders
cautiously.