Consumption still has not seen a significant decline, and there is still some support for aluminum prices

On Friday, the main force of Shanghai aluminum AL2101 rose 235 yuan, or 1.
50%, to open at 15960 yuan, the highest intraday 16040 yuan, the lowest 15855 yuan, to the close of 15900 yuan
.

Macro aspect: the new strain of the virus found in the UK has gone out of control and spread 70% faster, which has led to the epidemic getting out of control in the UK, London and other places have been locked, and the market is pessimistic about the out-of-control epidemic in Europe
.
The Brexit trade deal was reached, worth $909 billion, and two major global uncertainties are weakening
.

On the supply side: China's average daily production of primary aluminum in November reached a record high
.
According to data from the Bureau of Statistics, China's primary aluminum production in November increased from a year earlier, with average daily production hitting a record high, and more smelting capacity came online
amid strong demand and high aluminum prices.
Demand side: Domestic terminal demand for automobiles, photovoltaics and household appliances is strong
.

Stocks: LME stocks fell by 5,750 tonnes to 1,372,400 tonnes last Thursday, stocks last week dematerialized 1,875 tonnes to 212,700 tonnes, and previous warehouse receipts fell 1,446 tonnes to 65,887 tonnes
.
According to the data on December 24, compared with the statistics on December 21, the destocking was 11,000 tons, which was 593,000 tons
.
Overall, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is still at a low level, which still supports the price
.

Overall, in terms of raw materials, alumina prices still maintain a low level of about 2300 yuan, the current electrolytic aluminum industry profits by the decline in aluminum prices narrowed to about 2500 yuan, from a historical perspective production profits are still in a high position, and high profits have continued for a long time
.
On the demand side, China's downstream automotive and infrastructure data performed strongly in November, indicating that China's economy maintained its recovery momentum and domestic market demand performed better
.

In the future, the supply side with the acceleration of aluminum enterprise investment and production, the supply side capacity is further released, while the downstream start remains stable, the new production capacity in December further released to form a certain suppression of electrolytic aluminum prices, limiting the upward momentum of aluminum prices, but China's low social inventory still supports aluminum prices
to a certain extent.