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On Friday, both internal and external aluminum prices fell, the outer aluminum fell 0.
06%, closing at 1711 US dollars / ton, and the internal aluminum price closed at 13580 yuan / ton, down 90 yuan / ton, down 0.
66%.
Macroscopic: The resumption of work in various places has improved, with the resumption rate of industrial enterprises above designated size in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Lumin and Fujian reaching more than 70%, and the resumption rate in Guangdong exceeding 50%.
Fundamentals: In 2019, China's imported bauxite exceeded 100 million tons for the first time, an increase of 21.
91% year-on-year, and Guinea, Australia, and Indonesia still maintained the three-legged situation in 2018, accounting for more than
94% of total imports.
In 2020, we expect these three countries to remain the main sources of China's bauxite imports, with another 100 million tonnes expected
throughout the year.
The current problems of recycled aluminum mainly come from overcapacity and scrap aluminum imports, and if the import of foreign aluminum alloy ingots increases due to the decrease in scrap aluminum approval imports, the domestic recycled aluminum price will be affected to a certain extent
.
Spot end: the mainstream spot trading price in Shanghai, Wuxi and Hangzhou markets on Friday was concentrated between 13500-13520 yuan / ton, down from the previous day's price by around 90 yuan / ton, the spot premium discount was between 100 ~ 90 yuan / ton, and the transaction price of large market households in the morning market was around
13540 yuan / ton.
Yesterday, the market supply was relatively sufficient, and the holders were actively shipping, but the willingness of the middlemen to receive the goods was general, and the transaction between the two sides was flat
.
This morning, the spot discount narrowed to around 50 yuan / ton, affected by the sharp decline in aluminum prices on Monday, the downstream side of the receipt of goods picked up slightly, but the inventory pressure is still unabated
.
Summary: At present, aluminum prices are mainly affected by the accumulation of inventory and weak consumption, and because the new electrolytic aluminum production capacity and the pace of production in Yunnan Inner Mongolia and other places are basically normal, the production of other electrolytic aluminum plants is less blocked, and it is expected that the subsequent inventory will further increase, considering the slow recovery of consumption, in the medium term, it is expected that short-term aluminum prices will remain under pressure
.
