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Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate strongly
.
Market sentiment has leveled off this week after last week's concentrated release, with fundamentals supporting a rebound
in aluminum prices.
After last week's sharp fall in aluminum prices, the downstream replenishment was positive, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots fell sharply by nearly 40,000 tons on Monday, close to this year's low, and the warehouse receipt in the last period was less than 90,000 tons, and the spot premium of aluminum ingots was as high as more than 300 yuan, a new high since 2017, indicating strong spot support
.
Under the state of high premium and low inventory, aluminum prices will remain high
.
On the last trading day before the holiday, it is recommended to leave the market to avoid holiday risks
.
Macro: The outbreak of the second epidemic in Europe has caused concerns, a number of US economic data will be released in 11 days, and market uncertainty has risen before the US election, so market sentiment is biased towards caution
.
On the supply side: aluminum enterprises have steadily released production capacity, Yunnan Hongtai has been powered on since early September, and the Weiqiao Yunnan project has also begun to be put into operation recently, production capacity has accelerated, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum continues to rise, and there is a loose trend
on the supply side.
Cost side: The cost of alumina rose to 12827 yuan yesterday, and the profit margin narrowed
.
In terms of liter discount: the domestic Yangtze River nonferrous spot premium was slightly lowered to 300 yuan / ton, and the discount range of Lun aluminum was significantly narrowed to 31.
5 US dollars, and the discount continued to decrease
.
Stocks: LME stocks fell by 6,100 tons to 1,466,900 tons, stocks in the previous period fell by 18,974 tons to 230,000 tons, and the social library fell by 35,000 tons to 662,000 tons according to the data on September 28, and the low inventory strongly supported the rebound
of aluminum prices.
Overall, in terms of raw materials, alumina prices bottomed out, the profit margin of the electrolytic aluminum industry has narrowed, and the demand side has entered the September consumption season, but the demand has not met expectations, and the overall performance is relatively weak
.
The overseas epidemic has been repeated, and there is uncertainty
about the economic impact of the epidemic.
From the perspective of the future market, the supply side has accelerated with the resumption of production by aluminum enterprises, and the production capacity of the supply side has been further released, while the downstream start has remained stable, and the demand side has not been guided by the consumption season, and the consumption performance has not met expectations
.
It is expected that the short-term aluminum price trend will be mainly range-bound
.
