Consumption has never improved, and the main force of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated at a high level

Market focus: (1) In 2019, China's GDP exceeded RMB 990865 00 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.
1%.

(2) U.
S.
jobless claims fell to 204,000 last week, 216,000 expected, and 214,000
in the previous month.
(3) China's primary aluminum output in December was 3.
04 million tons, down 0.
7% year-on-year; Total production for the whole year of 2019 was 35.
04 million tons, down 0.
9%
year-on-year.

Spot analysis: On January 17, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14530-14570 yuan / ton, the average price was 14550 yuan / ton, and the daily increase was 240 yuan / ton
.
The intraday market transaction heat is obviously not as hot as the previous two days, consumption is weaker under the background of weak supply and demand, and holders tend to reduce prices and dump goods in the later stage, but consumption has never improved
.
The downstream performance was calm during the day, and after the small year, it basically concentrated into the holiday state
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 91,951 tons on Friday, a daily decrease of 449 tons; On January 16, LME aluminum stocks were 1353875 tons, a daily decrease of 14,000 tons, and a decline of 18 consecutive days
.
As of the week ended January 17, the aluminum inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 220087 tons, a weekly increase of 26,188 tons, an increase of three consecutive weeks
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2003 contract were 84513 lots, an increase of 738 lots per day, short positions were 92385 lots, a daily increase of 3180 lots, net short positions were 7872 lots, a daily increase of 2442 lots, long and short positions increased, and net space increased
.

Market research and judgment: On January 17, the main force of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated
at a high level in 2003.
China's 2019 GDP year-on-year growth rate is in line with expectations, coupled with the US labor market is still strong, helping to stabilize market confidence, while domestic alumina production declined, prices stabilized, supporting aluminum prices, but at the end of the year downstream demand weakened, aluminum exports fell year-on-year, supporting aluminum prices, in addition, domestic electrolytic aluminum manufacturers accelerated the resumption of production, the recent domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory recovery trend, Shanghai aluminum near and far month prices expanded, follow-up inventory trends still need attention
。 In terms of spot, the intraday market transaction heat is obviously not as hot as the previous two days, consumption is weaker under the background of weak supply and demand, and holders tend to reduce prices in the later stage, but consumption has never improved, and the downstream intraday performance is calm
.
Technically, the main 2003 contract daily MACD red column increment of Shanghai aluminum, focusing on the pressure above the 14390 position, is expected to encounter short-term upward resistance
.