Consumption expectations in the second quarter are good, and Shanghai copper is expected to rise again

The US retail sales in March were significantly higher than the previous reading and expectations, which made US stocks hit a new high
.
In addition, the relatively beautiful economic data in the past few days has also made crude oil prices show a sharp strengthening, which to a large extent has a very positive impact on market inflation expectations, and copper prices have also benefited from this and have a relatively strong trend
.
And from the recent market premium quotation, the current holder has a certain attitude of supporting the price, which also shows that the current supply is still difficult to say
.
However, the downstream fear of heights and refusal to mine also exists, making the market transaction appear relatively light
.
However, at this point in time, the relatively optimistic outlook
for copper prices is still maintained.
In the second quarter, we need to focus on whether the destocking situation is smooth
.

In terms of fundamentals, the CSPT team failed to finalize the floor price of copper concentrate processing fees in the second quarter of 2021, indicating that the market may have certain differences in the future supply of copper concentrate, but it is still difficult to say that it is generous, and on the demand side, China's current control of the new crown epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to pull copper demand, and the next peak season destocking is likely to form a strong support for copper prices, temporarily maintaining the long-term bullish judgment of copper prices, but if the destocking in the second quarter is not as expected, The rise in copper prices may be weaker
than previously expected.