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Yesterday's Shanghai aluminum index rose slightly, closing at 14365 yuan / ton during the day, an increase of 0.
70%; LME aluminum in March also fluctuated to the upside, closing at $2,078 / ton overnight, up 0.
65%.
China's loose policy stimulates market bulls, the commodity market is generally rising, the supply side suppression of the aluminum market is still continuing, the cost side support effect is prominent, and the growth rate of consumer demand is expected to be good, etc.
have supported aluminum prices, and aluminum is expected to rise
today.
On the supply side, affected by environmental protection inspection factors, the supply of bauxite across the country remains tight, and environmental protection factors will disrupt the supply and output
of domestic mines for a long time.
In terms of alumina, although some alumina plants have implemented production cuts to reduce losses, from the current national alumina production capacity, output and inventory, the current domestic alumina supply has not seen a tight situation, in June 2018 China's alumina exports were 118,000 tons, a new high since 2002, overseas consumption still has potential
.
Electrolytic aluminum situation, it is expected that the release of electrolytic aluminum production capacity will further slow down, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that it will strictly control the production capacity
of the "two high" industries.
Strictly control the new production capacity of steel, coking, electrolytic aluminum, casting, cement and other key areas in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas, the Yangtze River Delta, the Fenwei Plain and other key areas, never allow the construction of new projects in violation of laws and regulations, strictly implement the methods for replacing production capacity in steel, cement, flat glass and other industries, and never allow the same amount of replacement
of backward production capacity.
In terms of inventory, LME aluminum stocks increased by 2,850 tons yesterday, domestic social stocks fell by 16,000 tons to 1.
807 million tons, and aluminum rod stocks reported 83,500 tons, little change
.
In terms of demand, on Tuesday, the spot aluminum ingot in Shanghai reported a discount of 90~80 yuan / ton for the current month's contract, the spot sticker moved under water, the cargo holders were cautious in shipments, and downstream enterprises maintained a wait-and-see situation for aluminum prices to rise, and the overall transaction remained sluggish; LME aluminum in March switched from premium to discount of 11.
5 US dollars / ton
.
In June, China's aluminum and aluminum alloy production maintained a slight increase month-on-month, and aluminum exports also increased by 10.
9% year-on-year, and the consumption side maintained a stable trend in the first half of the year; However, the operating rate of aluminum profiles and aluminum plate, strip and foil enterprises declined
.
The main logic of the current rise in aluminum prices is affected by the support of the cost side and the recovery of the macro surface, but the domestic social inventory is still at a historical high, and downstream consumption will enter the seasonal off-season, cautiously looking at the continuation of the high aluminum price; The United States will lift sanctions against Rusal and pay attention to cross-market anti-arbitrage opportunities
.
