Compound fertilizer market outlook may be less than expected

Since July, the fertilizer market has undergone earth-shaking changes.
The overall fertilizer price has shown a downward trend, and the price reduction has intensified.
Among them, there are obvious signs of weakness in the raw material market, and the cost support of compound fertilizer has decreased accordingly.
Although the autumn fertilizer market is underway, the purchase and sale of The atmosphere was very gloomy
.
Compared with previous years, the market started earlier this autumn.
As early as May, some compound fertilizer companies started to collect in advance.
The price of fertilizer in autumn not only "opened higher", but also the enthusiasm of downstream payment is relatively high.
However, recently, the fertilizer market has reversed.
Autumn market promotion slowed down in some regions
.

The cost of raw materials has dropped significantly, and the market price of compound fertilizer has also dropped.
This week, rumors of low prices have gradually increased.
On the basis of lowering the factory quotation, some companies have added preferential policies, such as time-limited delivery rebates and storage subsidies.
In addition, the guarantee policy is also relatively low.
Generally, the time lasts until around September
.
The loosening of compound fertilizer prices has exacerbated the stalemate in the autumn market to a certain extent.
Even if companies reduce prices to ensure the bottom line, it is difficult to boost the confidence of downstream stocking, mainly due to the possibility of further weakness in the raw material market, and the price reduction of compound fertilizers may exceed expected
.

First of all, the price reduction of raw materials is out of control
.
Since the beginning of the month, the price of compound fertilizer raw materials has been reduced collectively, and the rate has gradually increased.
After the urea price rebounded slightly at the beginning of the week, the stamina has been slightly insufficient in recent days, and even some price reductions have occurred.
Due to the weak demand in the off-season, the domestic urea market will be mainly under pressure.
; The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories is low, the purchase demand is limited, the new orders for monoammonium are scarce, the price of raw material sulfur has fallen sharply, the cost of monoammonium has been reduced, and the market price has weakened; the potash fertilizer market is not good, and the price of potassium chloride is positive.
In the slow decline, the impact of imported goods has increased, and the sales prices of port traders are also declining.
Therefore, the downward fluctuation of the raw material market continues
.

Second, the downstream sentiment has undergone a major change
.
The autumn compound fertilizer market is full of twists and turns.
From the initial stage of panic stocking in the downstream to the current wait-and-see situation, the overall sentiment of the downstream is becoming more and more pessimistic.
The reason is that the autumn market was relatively optimistic.
The market is at a normal level, and when the terminal demand has not been released, it has chosen to operate cautiously recently; the second reason is that the price of raw materials has not yet stabilized, some fertilizers are in the downward channel, and the price of compound fertilizer has not yet been completely clear, and may even continue to decline.
, buy up and not buy down, and there is still a distance from the autumn sales season, so it is difficult to ease the short-term market stalemate
.

Finally, upstream factory production is in a dilemma
.
As of the end of this week, according to China Fertilizer.
com, the overall operating rate of large compound fertilizer factories nationwide was around 37.
6%, showing a gradual downward trend for several consecutive weeks, and the decline has expanded in the past two weeks
.
The reduction in the operation of compound fertilizer factories is really helpless.
The first reason is that the raw material market fluctuates greatly.
In order to avoid risks, the factory procurement pace has to be slowed down.
Since the current demand for fertilizers in various places is in the off-season, the load can be appropriately reduced; the second reason is the price.
Due to the decline, the speed of delivery of goods by dealers is generally slow, and some factories have a serious backlog of inventory.
They can only temporarily stop and wait for the demand to improve and resume production.
Therefore, the short-term factory start-up situation is not ideal
.

To sum up, there are very few new orders in the compound fertilizer market recently, and there is no clear price guide for the time being
.