Commodity markets continue to adjust Plastics or oscillations are stronger

The impact of deleveraging in the financial sector on commodities has weakened

Since the end of last year, in response to the real estate and financial bubbles, the central bank has adopted a prudent and tight monetary policy with guaranteed economic growth, and the stock and commodity markets have been weak to the downside
.
We believe that the main task of the central bank this year is to prevent risks and deleverage in the financial sector and encourage funds to go out of the virtual and real, the regulator does not want to see the financial sector of capital tension have a negative impact on the real operation, as the central bank takes the initiative to put liquidity into the market and the central bank level does not want the market to overshoot, it is expected that the negative impact of financial sector deleveraging on commodities is weakening
.

Crude oil prices were supported by the expectation of prolonged frozen production

The Saudi crown prince's recent pessimistic statement on the crude oil market has led to a sharp decline in oil prices, but the adjustment of the oscillation of the crude oil market in early May was conducive to the extension of the frozen production agreement of OPEC oil producers on May 25, thus providing a solid guarantee
for the rebalancing of supply and demand in the crude oil market in the second half of the year 。 In addition, from a global perspective, the current is in the seasonal off-season of crude oil consumption, but from June to August global crude oil consumption demand will increase seasonally by 2 million barrels / day level, the United States crude oil consumption has also entered the seasonal consumption season at the end of April, the United States continues to hit a record high commercial crude oil inventories will peak and fall, high inventories on oil prices will gradually weaken, with the mid-to-late May oil production of oil production extended expectations of further heating, international oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate
upward.

After May Day, petrochemical inventories accumulated to a moderately high level of 875,000 tons; delivery warehouse receipts were 203, at a low level in the same period of history, given the main 1709 contract flat water spot, the pressure on warehouse receipts in the later futures market is not large
.
On the other hand, after the Spring Festival, traders imported a large number of forward cargo, but in the continuous decline market, it is difficult to digest the imported goods arriving at the port, which promotes the domestic plastic port inventory to continue to operate at a high level, the trade link is not smooth, and the petrochemical destocking effect is not ideal
.
However, with the increase of petrochemical equipment maintenance in May and the reduction of imports in the later period, it is expected that under the current market price of 8500 yuan / ton, the willingness and confidence of petrochemical to raise prices will be significantly strengthened, and the probability of promoting stable price increases in the later period and driving terminal enterprises to actively replenish inventory is large, which will help the trade link to destock.

Overall, with the weakening of the marginal effect of deleveraging in the financial sector on commodities, and the gradual reduction of supply in the plastics market, plastic futures or oscillations are running
strongly.