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Recently stimulated by recession concerns, commodities are weak overall, rubber supply and demand growth synchronously, maintaining relative stability, Hainan supply increased, raw material prices under pressure, downstream start data did not significantly improve, terminal consumption stimulation still has expectations, supply continues to increase, suppress price upside, after the early decline, Shanghai rubber risk sentiment has been released, currently at a relatively low level, is expected to maintain a weak short-term trend
.
In terms of news, the sales volume of heavy-duty trucks in June 2022 was 53,000 units, down 66% year-on-year, and the cumulative sales of heavy-duty trucks in the first half of 2022 were 378,000 units, down 64% year-on-year, both market sales and year-on-year hit a new low
in the same period of recent years.
There is no big
problem on the rubber supply side this year.
In 21 years, Indonesia and Malaysia have reduced production due to weather and epidemics; Although Thailand has been affected by the epidemic, high prices have stimulated output, and it is expected that Thailand's output will increase year-on-year this year; In addition, Vietnam, the Golden Triangle and Africa have a good age structure, and it is expected that there will be a certain increase
this year.
Production is expected to increase this year compared with 21 years, and the reduction in production on the supply side has not yet
arrived.
As of July 7, the operating rate of China's all-steel tire sample enterprises was 59.
14%, down 3
% from last week.
31%, the operating rate of China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 66.
41%.
Decreased by 0
from last week.
26%
。 Operating rates are expected to stabilize
this week.
Recently, rainy weather has occurred in many regions of China, which has certain restrictions on the speed of shipment in the replacement market, and superimposed on the off-season of the transportation industry, the difficulty of the all-steel tire market has been significantly improved
.
The mainstream price of the domestic rubber spot market followed the futures plate down by 300-500 yuan / ton, and the downstream bargain buying
appropriately.
The contradiction between supply and demand has not improved significantly in the short term, downstream demand, tire factories are facing the dilemma of weak domestic sales and high inventory, it is still difficult for enterprises to increase their operating load significantly, and the demand side of raw materials lacks favorable support
.
Upstream glue supply increased, prices weakened
.
In the long run, the improvement of the demand side of tianjiao is the key factor supporting the trend of rubber prices, and the recent Shanghai rubber affected by the surrounding commodities to make up for the decline market is more caused by investors' risk aversion mentality, in general, the downward space of rubber prices should be limited, terminal enterprises can still purchase
on demand.
