Climate change affects global chemical supply chain stability

In the past two years, the global epidemic of infectious diseases and geopolitical factors have had an impact on the chemical industry supply chain
.
However, some experts and scholars pointed out that the impact of climate change caused by global warming on the supply chain in the medium and long term is even more serious
.
The frequent occurrence of meteorological disasters caused by climate change has even had a profound impact on the supply chain of chemical products, and coastal areas, which play an important role in the supply chain, will be affected by increasingly serious meteorological disasters
.
Experts believe that governments and chemical producers should have thought ahead
.

Has profoundly affected the supply chain

In 2021, there have been many supply chain disruptions caused by climate change around the world
.
In February of that year, extreme cold weather in Texas caused the worst unplanned power outage in U.
S.
history
.
The power outage forced railroads and ports in Texas to shut down
.
Cold waves have damaged business infrastructure, especially plumbing
.
The incident triggered a sharp rise in global chemical prices at the time, and exacerbated the shortage of semiconductors, which affected the recovery of the global auto industry in the following months
.

Hurricane Ida, the fifth-largest hurricane in U.
S.
history, hit the Gulf Coast in late August last year, damaging vital local industrial facilities such as plastics and pharmaceuticals, and exacerbating supply shortages
.
In British Columbia, Canada, the local area first encountered a heat wave and forest fire that had not been seen in a century, and then encountered a heavy rainfall that had not been seen in a century
.
The resulting flooding cut rail and road access to Vancouver and forced the closure of a regional oil pipeline
.

In Europe, floods in the Rhine River basin in Northwest Europe in February 2021 and drought in April of the same year have affected the transportation of chemical products on the Rhine River
.
According to a May 2021 report by Everstream Analytics, which tracks supply chain trends, chemical manufacturers that rely on the Rhine waterway are increasingly facing reduced shipping capacity due to drought, which disrupts the distribution of imported raw materials and exported products flow
.

Coastal areas will be significantly threatened

Experts point out that of all the threats to supply chains from climate change, coastal areas are the most significant potential threat
.
Rising sea levels will themselves flood ports and other coastal infrastructure, and supply chain disruptions from more frequent severe hurricanes, floods, wildfires and other increasingly extreme weather disasters are still shaking the global economy
.

Climate scientists say the infrastructure impacts associated with climate change are sure to intensify in the coming years as the world warms
.
About 90 percent of the world's cargo is transported by ships, and rising sea levels will eventually threaten most of the world's 2,738 coastal ports, said Austin Becker, a scholar at the University of Rhode Island
.
And for most port managers, the future rate of sea level rise is uncertain, and solutions are elusive
.
As a result, only a few port managers take action against the threat
.

In the future, climate-related disruptions are likely to increase and exacerbate their economic knock-on effects, with rising prices and shortages of everything from agricultural products to cutting-edge electronics likely as consequences
.
The cost of shipping a container across the Pacific jumped from $2,000 to $15,000 to $20,000 due to the Covid-19 pandemic, which may be a harbinger of what's to come
.

Seaport infrastructure needs to be improved

Experts believe that if current predictions about the future climate are correct, and current global supply chains will be disrupted on a massive scale, supply chain managers should perhaps accept the fact that climate-related economic turmoil is inevitable by the end of the century and plan ahead.
Make plans
.

To counter the threat of supply chain disruption, manufacturers are considering expanding inventories or developing "dual supply chains
.
" A dual supply chain is the delivery of the same goods through two different routes
.
This way, if there is a problem with one route, the other can avoid supply cuts
.
However, this solution will significantly increase production costs
.
Another option is to continue the "just-in-time" system that currently dominates, but it needs to shorten the current supply chain that travels across the ocean at every turn, and move production facilities back to the homeland or neighboring countries
.

For infrastructure service providers, the cost of coping can be high, especially for seaports
.
Experts say there are three ways that port authorities can address climate impacts
.
First, it is possible to move ports to inland rivers, but there are few and expensive sites available with similar geographic conditions
.
Second, expensive seawalls can be built around ports, but even if these seawalls are strong enough to withstand sea level rise, they must be constantly raised to keep up with the rate of sea level rise
.
Finally, all port infrastructure can also be raised by at least a few meters so that the port can continue to function as sea levels rise
.
However, Becker said the rate of sea level rise was uncertain, so choosing a cost-effective option was difficult
.
In addition, upgrading the wharf and other port infrastructure will have an impact on the port's rail and roads, and will likely need to be rebuilt as well
.

Becker believes that raising the world's 221 most active seaports by 2 meters would require 436 million cubic meters of construction material, an amount sufficient to create a global shortage of certain commodities
.
It is estimated that cement use alone will reach 49 million tonnes, costing $60 billion in 2022 dollars
.
In addition, Becker said that in 2012 dollars, raising the infrastructure of the 100 largest U.
S.
seaports by 2 meters would cost between $57 billion and $78 billion and require 704 million cubic meters of dredging material, which is an astronomical sum
.