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Citibank analysts said on Monday that the outlook for the thermal coal market in the fourth quarter of this year and throughout 2020 is expected to be weak due to weak global energy demand and falling natural gas prices
.
Analysts noted that falling global energy demand and falling natural gas prices will continue to limit the use of coal, while increased supplies from India, Colombia and South Africa despite low prices have made the seaborne market turn surplus
in 2020.
In China, domestic supply also outstrips demand, putting prices under pressure, although demand for imported coal remains strong
as the price of thermal coal falls even faster than domestic prices.
Southeast Asia remains the main driver of coal demand due to the construction of new coal plants, such as the 2 GW of new coal plants
built in Malaysia in the second half of 2019, analysts noted.
India's thermal coal imports rose more than 21 percent year-on-year in the first half of the year due to strong demand for power plants, while its domestic production remained weak, partly due to heavy rains in western India and safety concerns
at certain mines.
However, analysts said the ongoing macroeconomic slowdown and the recent monsoon-led weakness could hit thermal power and dampen demand
for imported coal.
However, analysts point out that a slowdown in advanced economies, including the European Union and the United States, will more than offset growth
in Southeast Asia and India.
Citibank analysts said on Monday that the outlook for the thermal coal market in the fourth quarter of this year and throughout 2020 is expected to be weak due to weak global energy demand and falling natural gas prices
.
Analysts noted that falling global energy demand and falling natural gas prices will continue to limit the use of coal, while increased supplies from India, Colombia and South Africa despite low prices have made the seaborne market turn surplus
in 2020.
In China, domestic supply also outstrips demand, putting prices under pressure, although demand for imported coal remains strong
as the price of thermal coal falls even faster than domestic prices.
Southeast Asia remains the main driver of coal demand due to the construction of new coal plants, such as the 2 GW of new coal plants
built in Malaysia in the second half of 2019, analysts noted.
India's thermal coal imports rose more than 21 percent year-on-year in the first half of the year due to strong demand for power plants, while its domestic production remained weak, partly due to heavy rains in western India and safety concerns
at certain mines.
However, analysts said the ongoing macroeconomic slowdown and the recent monsoon-led weakness could hit thermal power and dampen demand
for imported coal.
However, analysts point out that a slowdown in advanced economies, including the European Union and the United States, will more than offset growth
in Southeast Asia and India.
