China's social inventory is low, and Shanghai aluminum support still exists

Macroscopic, on November 15, China, Japan and South Korea and other 15 countries signed RCEP, the regional economic cooperation agreement covers 1/3 of the world's population, the conclusion of RCEP will promote regional economic integration and coordinated development, promote regional trade freedom and global economic and trade cooperation in the context of the global economic and trade environment, China's a number of macroeconomic data recently released, strong performance will promote aluminum prices to continue to rise
.
The Pfizer vaccine has applied for emergency authorization in the United States, and the first batch of vaccines is expected to be released
on the US market in mid-December.

On the supply side, smelter profits remained high, industry capacity will be further released in December, the operating rate of the alumina industry continues to rise, and the supply side is weak
in the fourth quarter.
On the demand side, the terminal demand for domestic automobiles, photovoltaics and household appliances is strong
.

In terms of stocks, LME stocks were destocked by 2,775 tons to 1,350,600 tons yesterday, 6,041 tons to 214,300 tons last week, and warehouse receipts fell 805 tons to 84,245 tons
.
According to the data on December 07, compared with the statistics on December 03, social stocks continued to accumulate 08,000 tons, which was 615,000 tons, and the market excitement also eased
.
On the whole, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is still at a low level, which still forms a certain support
for the price.

Overall, in terms of raw materials, alumina prices fell slightly, and the profits of the electrolytic aluminum industry rose slightly, and production profits are still in a high position from a historical perspective
.
On the demand side, China's downstream automotive and infrastructure data performed strongly in October, indicating that China's economy maintained its recovery momentum and domestic market demand performed better
.

In the future, the supply side with the acceleration of aluminum enterprise investment and production, the supply side capacity is further released, while the downstream start remains stable, the new production capacity in December further released to form a certain suppression of electrolytic aluminum prices, limiting the upward momentum of aluminum prices, but China's low social inventory still supports aluminum prices
to a certain extent.