China's macroeconomic overview

Since the second half of 2016, the main economic indicators of the country have collectively recovered, especially some leading indicators, such as PMI, entrepreneurs and market confidence index, etc.
, which have stabilized and improved, and the macroeconomic L-shaped stabilization trend has emerged, and further exerted efforts
due to the effect of the policy of stable growth of decision-making departments.

From January to September 2016, the growth rate of fixed asset investment (nominal growth) in the country was 8.
2%, an increase of 0.
1 percentage points over the period from January to August, reversing the previous four consecutive months of decline
.
In terms of fixed asset investment, from January to September, the growth rate of private investment increased by 0.
4 percentage points from January to August, and the growth rate of real estate development investment increased by 0.
4 percentage points compared with January to August, and the growth rate was all stable and improved
.
Infrastructure investment is running at a high level, with a growth rate of 19.
4% in the first three quarters
.
It is expected to increase fixed asset investment in 2017, which is still the first choice
for decision-making departments to stabilize growth.
To this end, in the future, we will vigorously approve and start new investment projects, adhere to the introduction of PPP mechanism in project investment, and increase inspection and supervision
.

In September this year, the national PPI (producer factory price index) ended a 54-month consecutive decline, up 0.
1%
year-on-year.
This is not only a major change in China's price situation, but also means that many industries are beginning to invest profitably
.
With the gradual increase in PPI in the future, the profit prospects are promising, which is bound to attract more investment and reverse the sharp decline in private investment
.
The Belt and Road Initiative also provides new impetus
for investment.
This year and next, the increase in China's overseas construction projects around the "Belt and Road" construction will also drive the growth
of China's investment level.
Driven by it, it is expected that the level of national fixed asset investment will improve in 2017, and the growth rate of national fixed asset investment will rise back to about 10%, an increase of 1-2 percentage points
over the growth rate in 2016.
Among them, the national infrastructure investment increased by about 20% year-on-year, and the strong growth momentum has not changed
.
The growth rate of real estate development investment in the country exceeded 6%, and the growth rate was the most obvious, not only far exceeding the growth level of 1% in 2015, but also at least 1 percentage point
higher than the growth rate in 2016.
The growth rate of private investment rebounded on the basis of stagnating in the second half of 2016, and the growth rate increased to more than
3% in 2017.

Secondly, industrial production stabilized and rebounded
.
The growth of investment in fixed assets and the increase in orders for investment products will promote the growth of
industrial production.
According to statistics, in September 2016, the added value of industries above designated size (at comparable prices) in the country increased by 0.
47% month-on-month and 6.
2% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate was above
6% for seven consecutive months.
From January to September, the cumulative growth rate of industrial added value also reached 6%.

The indicators of electricity consumption and railway freight volume that best reflect the state of industrial production have all stabilized and rebounded
.
Among them, the electricity consumption of the whole society in September (statistics of the National Energy Administration) increased by 6.
9% year-on-year, and the growth rate rose sharply by 7.
1 percentage points
year-on-year.
It is expected that the national industrial production will maintain the main tone of recovery in 2017, and the annual growth rate of industrial added value will exceed 6%, or even reach 7%.