China's independent refinery imports are becoming more concentrated

Affected by global economic factors in the third quarter, crude oil prices fell back, and crude oil imports fell
greatly.
While the volume and price of imported crude oil are declining, the characteristics and trends of diversification of import sources are also more obvious, and the imported oil types of independent refineries tend to be concentrated
.

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs a few days ago, in the first three quarters, China's crude oil imports were 370.
406 million tons, a decrease of 4.
3%
compared with the same period in 2021.
So far, the first quarter imported the largest crude oil, averaging 128 million tons, and the third quarter imported the lowest, averaging 118 million tons
.
But at the same time, crude oil prices in the first quarter also rose to the highest point in nearly 14 years, and crude oil imports rose rapidly; Affected by global economic factors in the third quarter, crude oil prices fell back, and crude oil imports fell
greatly.

It is worth noting that while the volume and price of imported crude oil are declining, the characteristics and trends of diversification of import sources are also more obvious, and the imported oil types of independent refineries tend to be concentrated
.

Refinery imports have changed

In the past five years, China's crude oil imports have shown a diversified development strategy, and the Middle East, North Caspian Sea, Africa and South America are the four main source regions
of China's crude oil imports.
The import volume of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Angola, Oman, Brazil and other countries accounted for 64.
52%
of the total import volume in the past five years.

From the perspective of the structure of major importers, from January to August, the imports of the top ten countries in China's crude oil imports accounted for 86.
8% of the total imports, namely Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Kuwait, Angola, Malaysia, Brazil and Colombia
.
Among them, the top three Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iraq imported 58.
3123 million tons, 56.
7986 million and 34.
6956 million tons respectively, accounting for 17.
66%, 17.
2% and 10.
51%
respectively.

It is worth noting that the import of raw materials from independent refineries has become more concentrated this year, with only more than 50 kinds of oil imported by independent refineries throughout the year, compared with 80 or even 100 kinds in previous years
.
In addition, the arrival volume of the top 20 varieties has accounted for 92%
of the total.

Industry insiders pointed out that in the future, independent refinery crude oil imports may continue to continue to be more absolute price orientation, and raw material imports will continue to show relatively concentrated but still flexible characteristics
.

The yield of refined oil is continuously reduced

As independent refineries continue to transform, feedstock selection changes
.

Zhang Liucheng, chairman of China (Independent Refinery) Petroleum Procurement Alliance, pointed out that in recent years, with the rapid growth of primary processing capacity (normal decompression) of independent refineries and the requirements of product quality upgrading, the supporting secondary processing and deep refining equipment has gradually improved, and generally reached the national V standard, large-scale refineries have begun to extend to the chemical industry based on refining, the industrial chain has gradually lengthened, and the adaptability to raw materials is stronger
.

"In 2016, China's independent refineries began to concentrate on large-scale continuous reforming and hydrocracking units, starting with multi-production and processing naphtha, and after 2020, they developed deeper processing and diversified products, and the yield of refined oil products continued to decrease
.
" Longzhong Information refined oil product analyst Ding Xu believes
.

A refiner who did not want to be named said that the decrease in the yield of refined oil basically represents a high yield of chemical products, and the high added value of chemicals will indeed increase the company's profits, and the processing direction and processing depth are the direction
that future refiners value.

Ding Xu expects that with the adjustment of upstream enterprises and equipment, combined with the current situation of gasoline demand about to peak and diesel demand decline, the yield of refined oil products of independent refineries will accelerate to decline, falling to about 54% around 2025 and below
50% after 2027.

Oil conversion is further deepened

Industry insiders said that in the future, the oil conversion work of refining and chemical enterprises will be further deepened, independent refineries are rapidly extending to the field of new materials and new energy, and the chips of refining and chemical enterprises to increase "green products" are increasing
.

"As refining and chemical integration enterprises are put into operation one after another, backward production capacity continues to withdraw, the average size of refineries is increasing, and the degree of refining and chemical integration will continue to increase
.
" In addition, the diversification of refined oil export methods and the extension of products to new materials and new energy fields will help improve the market competitiveness of local refining
.
The refinery source said
.

Industry insiders pointed out that the way to break the domestic oil surplus is not only to eliminate backward production capacity, but also to actively transform existing production capacity, and produce high-end chemical materials and green plastics that are more in line with the development of low-carbon society
.
Therefore, it is recommended that the competent government departments continue to strengthen industry and tax supervision, maintain a fair market environment and competition order, force inefficient production capacity to exit the market through market-oriented means, and promote the conversion
of new and old kinetic energy.

The above-mentioned refinery people suggested that it is necessary to strengthen market analysis and judgment, adopt more targeted sales strategies, and more importantly, accelerate the pace of refinery transformation, adjust the industrial and product structure, and open a new model
of low-carbon development.