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Last week's Tokyo rubber market maintained a firm trend on the strong support of spot market prices, and the far-month price remained above the 20 yen discount level after rising to the 230 yen line
.
On the other hand, because Sino-US trade frictions still do not see exports, the market generally believes that the leaders of China and the United States may hold summit-level talks on trade issues at the G20 summit held in Osaka, Japan on the 28th of this month
.
China's economic indicators for May released over the weekend were sluggish, with reduced export demand weighing on raw material commodity prices, and the main Shanghai rubber contract once again fell below the support of the 12,000 yuan line
.
Recently, market participants have been asking about the storage capacity of the Tokyo commodity market, and this week I will analyze the systemic problems
in the RSS delivery market of the Tokyo Commodity Exchange.
Tokyo Rubber RSS adopts the delivery of the exchange's designated warehouse, that is, the rubber manufacturer or Japanese domestic trading company imports RSS3 rubber from the place of origin, clears customs and commodity inspection, and then enters the delivery warehouse designated by the Tokyo Mercantile Exchange for delivery
.
Since the second half of last year, due to Tokyo's hosting of the 2020 Olympic Games, large-scale commercial development in the Tokyo Bay and Yokohama port areas, the previous port and storage facilities have been demolished and renovated, and the designated warehouse capacity of the Tokyo Stock Exchange has almost halved
compared to 2016.
At the same time, the Chiba Prefecture warehouse, which was temporarily developed last year, will no longer accept new natural rubber imports due to the expiration of the contract
.
In the short term, even if the Tokyo futures price has a high discount to the spot, it is still unable to allow more short hedging orders to enter the market
.
On the other hand, 600 tons of natural rubber stocks were shipped out of the Kanagawa area in late May
, according to the change in natural rubber stocks calculated by the Tokyo Mercantile Exchange at the end of May.
At the same time, the delivery period of the current liquid inventory in the delivery market will come in September this year, when the storage capacity vacated by the old goods can allow the new rubber to enter the Japanese market, and the medium-term short position reflected in the futures price can still be seen in the 10, 11 contract medium-term short position still has a tendency to
expand.
In the second half of last week, with the fall in the price of far month contracts, overall positions have been increasing, especially in November contracts
.
From the price level, when the price of the far month contract is above the 205 yen line, it can be seen that there are significantly more short pending orders, which shows that once the country of origin enters the production increase period, the market will still face greater supply pressure
.
