China Plastics Price Index (July 21-27)

　　In this issue (July 21-27), the International Monetary Fund further downgraded its forecast for global economic growth.
Concerns about economic recession lowered demand expectations.
The United States continued to release strategic oil reserves, which also weighed on the market.
International oil prices fell in a row
.
In this issue, the three major plastic futures markets moved higher in shocks
.
Under the influence of point-price transactions, the spot market of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) has a certain willingness to rise, while polypropylene (PP) and linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) are strongly adjusted
.
On the whole, downstream manufacturers maintain the main purchases for rigid needs, and there is no obvious heavy volume of transactions
.
In this issue, the market price of Guangdong Plastics Exchange is adjusted within a narrow range, and merchants ship with them, and the index fluctuation is limited
.
As of the close, the China Plastics Price Index of the Plastics Exchange was at 1289.
51 points
.

　　From a fundamental point of view, the recent plastic market has improved slightly, but not significantly
.
The supply pressure of plastics is still obvious, PVC has high inventory, and PP and LLDPE are still in the period of capacity expansion
.
However, the overall downstream is still in the off-season
.
With the recession of foreign economies and weak domestic demand, market participants lack confidence in future expectations
.
It is expected that the short-term plastic market may not be able to see a significant improvement, and the probability of sideways fluctuations is high
.

　　PVC traded sideways After the futures market bottomed out, it fluctuated at a low level, and the market's pessimism weakened
.
Under the support of cost, the superimposed social inventory decreased slightly, the quotation of manufacturers increased, and traders mostly quoted with the fluctuation of futures, and the price of PVC rose slightly in the fluctuation
.
However, at present, the downstream is in the off-season of production, and terminal enterprises are mostly just in need of purchases in the market, and the overall transaction is sluggish and stable
.
As of the end of the period, the mainstream self-delivery price of type 5 ordinary calcium carbide in South China and East China markets was 6,500-6,530 yuan (ton price, the same below), an increase of about 100 yuan from last week
.
Recently, PVC has risen slightly, coupled with the reduction of liquid chlorine price subsidies, the loss of chlor-alkali integrated enterprises has narrowed
.
Judging from the weekly start-up situation, the operating rate of calcium carbide method enterprises decreased slightly, and the operating rate of ethylene method enterprises increased, and the overall operating rate of enterprises did not fluctuate much
.
PVC social inventory remains at a high level since the Spring Festival
.
According to the law of inventory data in previous years, social inventory is likely to rise steadily in the next two months
.
It is expected that the PVC market will still be under pressure in the short term, and it is difficult for the price to increase significantly
.

　　PP is weak and sorted The futures market is slightly sorted, the ex-factory price of petrochemicals is partially lowered, the quotations of traders are slightly weakened, and downstream factories mostly maintain cautious purchases, and the market trading has not improved significantly
.
As of the end of the period, the mainstream quotations of domestic PP wire drawing materials were 7950~8400 yuan, down about 125 yuan from the previous issue
.
In terms of supply, the number of newly added maintenance devices is limited in the short term, but the operating rate of petrochemical enterprises is not high at present
.
At present, crude oil prices are high, and PP cost support still exists, but the impact is gradually weakened
.
In terms of demand, downstream companies mostly replenish inventories on demand, while the operating rate of some downstream factories is still declining, and the follow-up of new terminal orders is slow
.
The overall performance of demand is flat, and it is expected that the PP market will be stable and small in the next period
.

　　LLDPE fell slightly The futures market fluctuated and sorted out, the ex-factory prices of petrochemical companies were partially lowered, traders' offers were weak, and downstream factories were not willing to receive goods
.
As of the end of the period, the mainstream domestic LLDPE quotations were 7900~8400 yuan, down 250 yuan from the previous period
.
In terms of supply, the current petrochemical plant maintenance loss is still at a neutral high level, and the operating rate of production enterprises is low, less than 80%
.
The destocking of petrochemical enterprises has accelerated.
The current inventory level is lower than the same period last year, and the pressure on the supply side is not large
.
In terms of demand, orders for downstream high-end membranes have increased slightly recently, and the operating rate of the industry has increased slightly; the start of the pipe industry is affected by high temperature weather, and the demand performance is relatively flat
.
The downstream mainly purchases a proper amount to maintain production, and the willingness to stock up is not high.
It is expected that the LLDPE market will fluctuate in the next period
.

　　(China Plastics Price Index Research Center)