China has entered the off-season, and the demand for aluminum market has slowed down significantly

Overnight, the main Shanghai aluminum 2108 closed at 18865, down 60, and LME aluminum closed at 2531, down 285
.
On the macro front, the Delta strain continued to spread, and the epidemic rebounded in many Western countries; China has entered the off-season, the demand slowdown has slowed significantly, the expectation of tightening the currency at the macro level has strengthened, while the momentum of economic recovery has weakened, and the market trend has entered the transformation stage, and it is recommended to take short
positions at the high.

Following the confirmation of the previous state reserve dump news, the State Reserve Bureau announced that the first batch of national reserves will be released at the end of June, and the public bidding time will be from July 5 to 6, and the method will be sold to downstream enterprises in the form of public bidding and will continue until the end of
December.
The current aluminum reserves of the national reserve are between 800,000 and 900,000 tons, and the final storage scale expected will be 200,000-600,000 tons on the water level, and the monthly reserve fluctuation range is between 3-100,000 tons, and the aluminum reserve determined this time is 50,000 tons, and the annual supply of 2% has not exceeded expectations and is relatively low
.
In June, the supply-side disturbance included power cuts in Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Guangdong and Guizhou and other places, and the reduction in production was about 50,000 tons, so the dumping at the end of June was actually under pressure on production before neutralization
.

The current electrolytic aluminum social inventory continues the rhythm of destocking, this week's inventory decreased by 16,000 tons, the overall water level of 874,000 tons, it is expected that the destocking speed will further slow down
after the release of reserves.
In the past, prices will rebound to a certain extent in the period after the end of the dump, especially when
the selling volume does not meet market expectations.

The current market that sells less than expected reflects the rapid rebound of aluminum prices, and the fundamentals at the end of the peak season still have some support, and it is expected to show a strong trend of volatility in the short term
.
However, at the same time, if the National Reserve responds to the previous National Development and Reform Commission's monitoring of commodity prices, and carries out targeted work to ensure supply and price stability, according to the overall reaction of the reserve market and price changes, it is not ruled out that the State Reserve Bureau will dynamically increase the scale of storage in the future, and with the peak season turning weaker, aluminum prices will face strong upward pressure
.