[Chemical market under "dual control"] Phosphate fertilizer market "sings all the way"

Since November last year, the phosphate fertilizer market has been "singing all the way", especially for monoammonium phosphate that was once hard to find.
The price has risen from 1750 yuan last year (ton price, the same below) to 3550 yuan in August.
Set the highest price since February 2013
.

However, with the national energy consumption "dual control" and "price-guaranteed and stable supply" policies on the raw material market, and the concentrated fertilizer preparation period is coming to an end, the recent rise in the phosphate fertilizer market has slowed down

Industry insiders predict that the phosphate fertilizer market may maintain a stable operation in the later stage, and the overall rise and fall will not be very large
.

Raw material prices remain high

　Raw material prices remain high　raw material prices remain high

From the perspective of raw materials, the prices of the main raw materials for phosphate fertilizers such as phosphate rock, sulfur, and liquid ammonia have always remained high, pushing the price of phosphate fertilizers to rise
.

In terms of phosphate rock, due to factors such as "dual control" of energy consumption and electricity curtailment, the supply of phosphate rock is in short supply, and the price remains high
.

At the end of September, the market reference price of phosphate rock was 670 yuan, an increase of 8.

In terms of sulfur, China's sulfur production of phosphate fertilizers is mainly dependent on imports.
After experiencing a low in 2019, the price of sulfur has risen from 500 yuan to the current level of nearly 2,000 yuan
.

At present, the price of domestic sulfur is fluctuating, and the supply in some areas is tight, supporting the price to continue to rise; in some areas, due to the impact of environmental inspections, the supply has slowed down and the price has stabilized

Regarding liquid ammonia, the price is still at a high level and has risen to a certain extent, but it has little effect on the cost of phosphate fertilizer
.

At present, the cost-side support of phosphate fertilizer raw materials is still strong, but it is unlikely that there will be a substantial increase in costs in the short term
.

Significant reduction in market supply

　Significant reduction in　market supplySignificant reduction in market supply

Recently, affected by the “dual control” of energy consumption and a new round of environmental supervision, the operating rate of phosphate fertilizer plants in Hubei and Yunnan has declined, and market supply has shrunk
.

"According to the pre-holiday phosphate fertilizer industry operating rate, the supply of monoammonium phosphate is still tight
.

According to rough statistics, the operating rate of monoammonium phosphate enterprises in September was 54.

According to Zhang Yu, a phosphate fertilizer analyst at Baichuan Information, Hubei Fengli has recently shut down for maintenance, Hubei Xiangyun granular monoammonium phosphate plant has ceased production, Ruifeng Phosphating and Hubei Xinyangfeng have reduced production, and Hubei Ezhong Ecological and Hubei Shilong installations are expected to take turns overhaul.
About a month or so; Henan Jinyuan Chenguang and Jiyuan Toyota have not resumed their work during the recent shutdown and maintenance; Anhui Sierte's device load remains low and is undergoing maintenance in turn; Sichuan enterprises started low-level operation, and the Dragon Mang device reduced production
.

The supply side has been significantly reduced, and the production companies mainly consume pre-stocks, and the quotation of phosphate fertilizer has risen sharply

It is understood that since December of last year, domestic phosphate fertilizer prices have been operating at a high level after experiencing multiple rounds of increases.
The prices of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate have been flying together, rising by about 64% and 48% year-on-year respectively during the year
.

At present, the average transaction price of monoammonium phosphate in the market is about 3,345 yuan; the price of diammonium phosphate is still strong.

　　With the rise in the price of phosphate fertilizers, there is no pressure on the inventories of phosphate fertilizer companies with phosphate rock resources, and the benefits of scale have been fully released
.

Although some companies have reduced their exports from the previous period due to the domestic guarantee policy, their profits are still considerable

　　The later market is mainly stable

　The late market is mainly stable 　 The　latter market is mainly stable

　　Judging from the current market, although the concentrated fertilizer season has arrived this autumn, the sales process of phosphate fertilizer has been slow
.

　　China Fertilizer.
com analyst Zhao Hongye believes that the sales of monoammonium phosphate before the National Day are not ideal, but the autumn and winter seasons are the home of phosphate fertilizers, and there should be a certain turnaround after the National Day
.

　　"Although companies and traders in the Northeast region have shown a'favorite' towards monoammonium phosphate in early September, they have purchased some sources, and currently have a certain amount of inventory in their hands.
Therefore, new purchases of monoammonium phosphate have slowed down
.

In the long run, the purchase quantity in the early stage is far from the actual demand.

　　Monoammonium phosphate is the main raw material for the production of compound fertilizers, but the compound fertilizer market is tepid, and most companies still focus on implementing pre-orders, and new orders are not sold well
.
"At present, the compound fertilizer market is entering the late stage of autumn fertilizer, and the advancement of winter storage in some regions is slow, and the power limit policy in various regions is frequent.
The overall market is full of wait-and-see atmosphere.
The autumn fertilizer is mainly sold, and the demand for monoammonium phosphate is gradually slowing down
.
" Zhang Yu analyzed and said
.

　　Not only that, the domestic autumn diammonium phosphate market is also slow to start, and the peak period of trading continues to be postponed.
Downstream traders already have about 70% of the supply.
At this stage, cautiously wait and see and purchase on demand
.
At present, the order volume of enterprises is sufficient, and most of them are waiting to be sent to the end of October or even the end of October
.
In addition, the international market demand for diammonium phosphate still exists, and the supply is tightening.
However, due to the export policy, it is not clear whether subsequent export orders can be successfully signed, and the impact on the domestic market is also weakening
.

　　From the terminal point of view, some farmers choose compound fertilizer as a substitute for diammonium phosphate, and some farmers adopt the strategy of applying less base fertilizer and adding more topdressing in spring to avoid high-priced fertilizers, which has also delayed the current phosphate fertilizer sales progress to a certain extent
.

　　"With the introduction of the power restriction and energy consumption'dual control' policy, the prices of bulk commodity raw materials have risen rapidly.
The state has called for people's livelihood-oriented and price-guaranteed and stable supply as the policy to curb the rapid rise in fertilizer prices
.
The Northeast market is currently in the phosphoric acid market.
During the peak season of traditional ammonium demand, compound fertilizer plants in the northeast region began to inquire prices one after another.
The transaction in the monoammonium phosphate market improved slightly, but the downstream purchasing market had different attitudes, and traders were more cautious
.
Will maintain a stable, weak finishing operation
.

　　Zhao Hongye said that the demand for phosphate fertilizers will gradually improve after the holiday.
Under the condition of relatively low operating rate, phosphate fertilizer companies are not under pressure.
In addition, there is a certain degree of support from the raw material side.
It is possible to rise, but it is difficult to appear sharp fluctuations for the time being
.