Caprolactam maintains high volatility

Recently, the caprolactam market followed the cost of rising first and then falling
.

As of March 25, the spot price of caprolactam in the East China market was 13,800 to 14,000 yuan (ton price, the same below)

"The cost price of caprolactam is generally benzene price + 6,000 yuan
.

The average price of pure benzene in the first quarter of 2022 is 7,864 yuan, the highest price is 8,910 yuan, the lowest price is 7,230 yuan, and the amplitude reaches 23%

The core of the rise in benzene is the rise in crude oil
.

On March 8, the United States and the United Kingdom announced the embargo of Russian crude oil, and Brent crude oil futures rose by $20 per barrel within a week, reaching the highest point of the year at $127.

"The market's sentiment about whether the situation in Russia and Ukraine is becoming more tense or lessening has completely become the core driving force for oil prices
.

In the medium and long term, Russia-Ukraine peace talks or even a ceasefire is the general trend, but it will take time for the situation to completely ease, so in the short term, oil prices The strong characteristics may continue, and pure benzene will rise with the rise of crude oil, but due to the influence of port inventories and imported supplementary supplies, pure benzene, as the downstream, will rise and fall less than the rise and fall of crude oil

From the analysis of the market outlook of caprolactam, the ups and downs will still follow the trend of crude oil
.

At present, most of the world's major institutions' forecasts for oil prices are relatively optimistic

In terms of the market, due to the strict domestic epidemic prevention and control, Shandong, Guangdong, Jiangsu and other places are not only the main production areas of caprolactam, but also the main sales areas of the caprolactam industry chain
.

The upgrade of epidemic prevention and control has a certain impact on the transportation of caprolactam, the resistance to delivery and delivery has increased, and the market transaction has been flat

"In terms of supply and demand, the capacity growth rate of the caprolactam industry chain in the past ten years is: caprolactam > PA6 slices > nylon yarn, and the industrial structure is gradually oversupplying
.

Recently, caprolactam enterprises have dropped a lot of burdens and the supply is tight; downstream demand has not been raised.

　　Zhuang Xiaohua analyzed that, taking into account comprehensively, caprolactam is still a long-short game in the short and medium term
.

If crude oil can be maintained at 90~110 US dollars / barrel, pure benzene will remain in the range of 7,500~8,500 yuan, and the price of caprolactam will fluctuate in the range of 13,000~15,000 yuan
.
If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine ends, the high oil price above $110/barrel may fall back
.