Capital Market Ups and Downs The non-ferrous metals market is at ease

After entering the traditional consumption season, the market has always shown a slight recovery trend, the surrounding market is turbulent, and copper prices are unmoved
.
Factors such as the opening and closing of import arbitrage windows, the continued decline in global exchange inventories, and the repositioning of LME and Comex funds after the new fiscal year have kept copper prices in a narrow range
after a slight recovery.

The recovery of processing fees indicates that the short-term raw material market is relatively loose, and copper prices have shown a slight fluctuation pattern
after the recovery.
The China Joint Copper Feedstock Joint Negotiating Group (CSPT) finalized the floor price of TC/RCs at $90/mt, or 9.
0 cents/lb
on September 21.
The price of imported copper concentrate TC hovered below $80/ton from March to May this year, and rose all the way after June, during LME Week, refineries were not eager to stock up when TC rose all the way, and some refineries opened maintenance, making the overall demand weaker, hovering
around $90.
5/ton so far 。 At the same time, the price difference between refined copper and scrap copper has further widened, and the consumption of scrap copper rods has improved, showing a pattern of both supply and demand, while the refined copper market is affected by the market's long-term demand concerns and the increase in import arrivals after the holiday, high prices and other factors, the trend of weak demand, downstream enterprises' willingness to receive goods is generally weak
.

According to the survey data, the domestic refined copper output in September was 716,800 tons, down 2.
78% month-on-month and up 4.
72% year-on-year, mainly due to the maintenance of smelters such as Fuye Group headquarters, Dongying Fangyuan, Xinjiang Wuxin Copper Industry, and some refineries due to the shortage of crude copper raw materials and the decline in capacity utilization
.
During the year, the newly expanded and resumed production capacity, except for Zhongyuan Gold Smelter, Xinjinchang, Yuguang Gold Lead (600531, shares) basically reached production, the remaining SDIC Jincheng Metallurgy, Chalco Southeast Mine, West Mine Qinghai and Wuzhou Jinsheng current refined copper production is still low or no output
.
Recycled copper still shows no signs of
recovery due to environmental protection and raw material shortage suppression.
According to the production schedule of each refinery in October, SMM expects to produce 731,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.
26%, and the month-on-month increase mainly comes from the release of newly expanded capacity and the recovery of pre-maintenance refineries, but the overall increase will still be subject to the maintenance of Zhongtiaoshan Nonferrous and Daye Nonferrous Metals; Some refiners said that the current spot copper concentrate TC remains at a high level, coupled with the demand to complete the annual production at the end of the year, will maintain a high operating rate, and the cumulative output from January to October reached 7.
2376 million tons, an increase of 10.
6%
year-on-year.

At the same time, the lack of consumption also made copper prices rebound after sluggish, according to SMM survey data, the operating rate of copper rod enterprises in September was 80.
13%, down 1.
21 percentage points month-on-month, up 5.
29 percentage points year-on-year, the year-on-year increase was mainly due to small enterprises due to capital problems can not operate normally, orders concentrated to medium and large enterprises, and the slight decrease month-on-month, mainly due to the implementation of trade war tariffs, copper rod enterprises with export business and end customer export business decreased, resulting in a decrease in orders
。

From the perspective of inventory changes on global exchanges, since the week of June 22, as of October 12, SHFE copper stocks have fallen from 305975 tons to 166,600 tons, a decrease of 1393375 tons (a decrease of 45.
55%); COMEX stocks fell by 59,372 tonnes (down 26.
32 tonnes) from 225572 tonnes to 166,200 tonnes; LME stocks fell 127694 tonnes (or 50.
4%) from 253394 tonnes to 125,700 tonnes; The total inventory of the world's three major exchanges fell from 784941 tons to 458,500 tons, a total decrease of 41.
59%, while the inventory of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone also fell by 102,500 tons to 407,200 tons
.
In comparison, SHFE inventories are still higher than COMEX and LME, but since the end of the National Day holiday, LME spot to March contracts have changed from discount to premium, and the BACK structure has expanded, coupled with the continuous depreciation of the RMB, imports have turned from profit to loss and have a tendency to expand, which in turn has closed the import window since the National Day holiday, which has eased the pressure
on supply in a certain sense.

Overall, after entering the traditional consumption season, copper prices have rebounded slightly, and the short-term supply and demand easing environment has limited pressure on copper prices, and the infrastructure development of China and the United States in the later period is still an important factor for the market to pay attention to.