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In recent years, with the surplus of domestic refining capacity and the upgrading of oil quality, the "three powers" of private refining enterprises have been liberalized, the construction of seven national petrochemical industrial bases, the technological advancement of refining and petrochemical products, the diversification of raw materials, and the entry barriers for foreign-funded enterprises Driven by the relaxation, and the relatively large profits of petrochemical products relative to oil products, China's petrochemical industry has developed rapidly, with obvious trends in base, large-scale, and integration.
In recent years, with the surplus of domestic refining capacity and the upgrading of oil quality, the "three powers" of private refining enterprises have been liberalized, the construction of seven national petrochemical industrial bases, the technological advancement of refining and petrochemical products, the diversification of raw materials, and the entry barriers for foreign-funded enterprises Driven by the relaxation, and the relatively large profits of petrochemical products relative to oil products, China's petrochemical industry has developed rapidly, with obvious trends in base, large-scale, and integration.
From now on, the weekly newsletter will analyze the supply and demand status of key petrochemical products in the domestic ethylene industry chain, propylene industry chain, butadiene industry chain, and aromatics industry chain in 2020 and 2025 .
Analysis of the supply and demand status of key products in the ethylene industry chain in 2020 and 2025Analysis of the supply and demand status of key products in the ethylene industry chain in 2020 and 2025
1 .
1 1 .
With domestic steam cracking, coal / methanol-to-olefins, and light hydrocarbon comprehensive utilization equipment completed and put into operation, China will add 5.
According to incomplete statistics, between 2020 and 2025 , China will add at least 10 million tons of ethylene production capacity per year, with an average annual growth rate of 5.
It is estimated that China’s ethylene demand will be 32.
2 2 .
In 2020, China's new polyethylene production capacity will be 3.
In 2020, China's polyethylene demand is 38.
3 3 .
In 2020, China will have no new capacity for EVA , with a total capacity of 970,000 tons per year; in 2020 , China's EVA capacity utilization rate will be 76% .
In 2020, China's EVA demand is 1.
4 4 .
In 2020, China's new ethylene oxide production capacity will be 650,000 tons / year, and the total production capacity will reach 5.
In 2020, China's ethylene oxide demand will be 3.
67 million tons, and the self-sufficiency rate will be 100% .
It is estimated that the average annual growth rate of China's ethylene oxide demand from 2020 to 2025 is 7.
3% ; the production capacity / demand and total supply / total demand are both 124% in 2025 .
5 .
Ethylene glycol
Ethylene glycol.
Ethylene glycol
In 2020, China's new ethylene glycol production capacity will be 4.
94 million tons / year, and the total capacity will reach 15.
7 million tons / year, an increase of 46% over 2019 ; in 2020 , China's ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate will be 69% .
Between 2020 and 2025 , China will add 10.
17 million tons of ethylene glycol production capacity per year, with an average annual growth rate of 10.
5% from 2020 to 2025 .
94 million tons / year, and the total capacity will reach 15.
7 million tons / year, an increase of 46% over 2019 ; in 2020 , China's ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate will be 69% .
Between 2020 and 2025 , China will add 10.
17 million tons of ethylene glycol production capacity per year, with an average annual growth rate of 10.
5% from 2020 to 2025 .
In 2020, China's ethylene glycol demand will be 21.
63 million tons, with a self-sufficiency rate of 50% .
It is estimated that the average annual growth rate of ethylene glycol demand in China from 2020 to 2025 is 6% ; the capacity / demand and total supply / total demand in 2025 will be 89% and 127% respectively .
63 million tons, with a self-sufficiency rate of 50% .
It is estimated that the average annual growth rate of ethylene glycol demand in China from 2020 to 2025 is 6% ; the capacity / demand and total supply / total demand in 2025 will be 89% and 127% respectively .
6 .
Styrene
Styrene.
Styrene
In 2020, China's new styrene capacity will be 2.
66 million tons / year, and the total capacity will reach 11.
97 million tons / year, an increase of 29% over 2019 ; in 2020 , China's styrene capacity utilization rate will be 83% .
From 2020 to 2025 , China will add 8.
99 million tons of styrene production capacity per year, and the average annual growth rate of production capacity from 2020 to 2025 is 11.
9% .
66 million tons / year, and the total capacity will reach 11.
97 million tons / year, an increase of 29% over 2019 ; in 2020 , China's styrene capacity utilization rate will be 83% .
From 2020 to 2025 , China will add 8.
99 million tons of styrene production capacity per year, and the average annual growth rate of production capacity from 2020 to 2025 is 11.
9% .
In 2020, China's styrene demand is 12.
89 million tons, and the self-sufficiency rate is 78% .
It is estimated that the average annual growth rate of China's styrene demand from 2020 to 2025 is 5.
1% ; the capacity / demand and total supply / total demand in 2025 will be 127% and 144.
1%, respectively .
89 million tons, and the self-sufficiency rate is 78% .
It is estimated that the average annual growth rate of China's styrene demand from 2020 to 2025 is 5.
1% ; the capacity / demand and total supply / total demand in 2025 will be 127% and 144.
1%, respectively .
7 .
Analysis of overcapacity of main products
Analysis of overcapacity of main products.
Analysis of overcapacity of main products
In 2020, among the main downstream products of ethylene in China, the ethylene oxide capacity / demand ratio is 148% , the capacity utilization rate is 67% , the self-sufficiency rate is 100% , and there is overcapacity; other products have varying degrees of supply and demand gaps.
In 2025, the capacity / demand ratios of ethylene oxide and styrene will be 124% and 127% , respectively , facing pressure from overcapacity.
The capacity / demand ratios of polyethylene, EVA , and ethylene glycol are 89% , 68%, and 60%, respectively .
Since China's ethylene mainly uses naphtha as its raw material, the cost is relatively disadvantaged compared to the Middle East and the United States using light hydrocarbon cracking production .
With the import of high-end polyethylene and EVA varieties, the import volume of these three products will still be large in 2025.
.
Coupled with foreign sources, the supply and demand of polyethylene and EVA will be tightly balanced, and ethylene glycol will have a structural surplus, that is, the capacity of domestic installations will not be fully utilized, and a large amount of foreign products will need to be imported.
The capacity / demand ratios of polyethylene, EVA , and ethylene glycol are 89% , 68%, and 60%, respectively .
Since China's ethylene mainly uses naphtha as its raw material, the cost is relatively disadvantaged compared to the Middle East and the United States using light hydrocarbon cracking production .
With the import of high-end polyethylene and EVA varieties, the import volume of these three products will still be large in 2025.
.
Coupled with foreign sources, the supply and demand of polyethylene and EVA will be tightly balanced, and ethylene glycol will have a structural surplus, that is, the capacity of domestic installations will not be fully utilized, and a large amount of foreign products will need to be imported.
Supply and demand balance of main products in the ethylene industry chain in 2020 and 2025
Supply and demand balance of main products in the ethylene industry chain in 2020 and 2025
Capacity / demand ratio of major products in the ethylene industry chain in 2020 and 2025
Capacity / demand ratio of major products in the ethylene industry chain in 2020 and 2025
