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First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsForeign aspects:
1.
The US PPI monthly rate recorded 0.
2% in August, up 0.
3 percentage points from -0.
1% in the previous month, the data shows that the US labor market remains stable and the unemployment rate remains low, but inflation remains weak
.
2.
Eurozone industrial output rose 0.
1% month-on-month in July, up 0.
7 percentage points
from -0.
6% in the previous month.
Rising industrial activity in Europe has boosted investor confidence
in the global economic upturn.
Domestic aspects:
1.
China's CPI rose 1.
8% year-on-year in August, an increase of 0.
4 percentage points over the previous month and a seven-month high
.
Although the price increase has expanded, it is still running at a low level overall, and inflationary pressure is not much
throughout the year.
2.
China's industrial added value above designated size recorded 6.
0% year-on-year in August, down 0.
4 percentage points from 6.
4% in the previous month, slowing to the lowest level of the year for the second consecutive month, and the continued cooling of industrial activity made the market worry whether China's economy can maintain rapid growth
in the second half of the year.
Second, this week's market trend analysis
Second, this week's market trend analysis(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (copper): This week's copper market can be described as "losing steadily", the overall correction is obvious, domestic copper prices have returned to the downward trend after a short period of stabilization, and the spot market has also fallen
.
Taking the Yangtze River spot market as an example, according to the monitoring data of the cable network, the average copper price at the beginning of the week was 51220 yuan / ton, and the average copper price on Friday was 50490 yuan / ton, down 730 yuan / ton, a decline of about
1.
43%.
Macro: Domestically, China's latest macroeconomic data for August slowed down across the board, with the growth rate of industries above designated size slowing to the lowest level of the year for the second consecutive month, and fixed asset investment hitting the lowest level
since 1999 from January to August.
As the world's largest metal consumer, China's economy showed "stagflation" signals, which triggered market concerns about the outlook for copper demand, and copper prices fell significantly
.
Abroad, judging from the pullback of copper in the foreign market this week, in addition to the most important inventory surge factors, the overall weakness of the US dollar index, the North Korean problem and the Trump administration's tax reform are also important reasons
.
Trump's tax reform policy has been confirmed to be announced this month, when the core content will also be disclosed, the tax reform showed positive signals to trigger the market's speculation about the Fed's interest rate hike this year, the US index was regained to stand on the $92 line, copper prices fell under pressure
.
Market: Copper prices failed to stabilize after a sharp retreat this week, and the overall market performance was pessimistic, still lacking bright spots, and maintaining a lackluster state
.
The willingness of holders to ship has been significantly enhanced, and the market source has been replenished by a certain amount, but in the case of declining copper prices, market demand has improved slightly, and the downstream is still bearish in the future, so most of them maintain on-demand buying operations, there are not many people with a large amount of inventory, and the actual market volume is not large
.
Many merchants said that the actual market consumption this month did not show a significant improvement in August, and the "Golden Nine" may fall into the embarrassing situation
of the peak season.
In terms of imported copper, under the influence of the end of the appreciation of the yuan, the loss of imported copper this week narrowed sharply, which is conducive to the flow of imported copper into the domestic market
.
In anticipation of increased supply, if domestic copper market demand does not improve, it will obviously have a negative impact
on prices.
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