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First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsDomestic aspects:
1.
Mastercard's consumer confidence index in the first half of 2017 shows that Chinese mainland consumers are still one of the most optimistic consumer groups in the Asia-Pacific region, boosted by the continuous economic growth, with an overall consumer confidence index of 88.
2, higher than the average
of the Asia-Pacific region.
2.
According to the July house price data of the Bureau of Statistics, the year-on-year increase in the national house price index fell to a one-year low, and the month-on-month increase also narrowed for the first time in half a year, and the month-on-month trend of the first, second and third tier property markets slowed down
.
International aspects:
1.
The US FHFA house price index recorded 0.
1% month-on-month in June, down 0.
3 percentage points
from 0.
4% in the previous month.
Although new home sales in the U.
S.
are currently near historic lows, they are still climbing
.
The growth in new home sales indicates that Americans are optimistic about
the future of the economy.
2.
The University of Michigan consumer confidence index recorded 97.
6 in August, up 4.
2 percentage points from 93.
4 in the previous month and hitting a new high since January, and the better-than-expected consumer confidence index indicates that the American people remain optimistic about the market and optimistic
about the medium- and long-term inflation outlook.
Second, this week's market trend analysis
Second, this week's market trend analysis(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (copper): Driven by market optimism this week, domestic copper prices rose strongly, showing a complete unilateral upward pattern, spot copper actively followed up during the week, up about 1500 yuan, but the transaction was slightly poor
.
Taking the Yangtze River spot market as an example, according to cable network monitoring data, the average copper price at the beginning of the week was 50890 yuan / ton, and the average copper price on Friday was 52270 yuan / ton, up 1380 yuan / ton, an increase of about
2.
71%.
Macro aspect: Abroad, since his election as president, Trump has been talking nonchalantly, and investors are full of doubts about his ability to govern; At the same time, the latest release of US economic data is slightly weak, the market lowered its expectations for the US economic outlook, the dollar continues to hover around 93 points, the weakness is fully displayed, if the dollar continues to fall next week, non-ferrous metals will continue to find support
.
Domestically, the State Council issued a guiding speech to further expand and upgrade information consumption, continue to release the potential of domestic demand, and boost market expectations
.
In addition, China's refined copper imports surged 13% to 283468 tons in July, encouraged by the overall tight supply fundamentals and optimistic expectations of Chinese demand, copper prices broke the slightly "tangled" trend in the past six months, and continued to soar this week to reach a more than three-year high
.
Market: The spot copper market is slightly more average this week, and the domestic market has not been replenished by sufficient import sources when the import profit window is closed
.
Under the influence of tight market supply and bullish sentiment of holders, the margin of spot copper discount has been shrinking
during the week.
From the perspective of demand, the continuous rise in copper prices has made downstream demand manufacturers a little unhappy
.
Because the current downstream manufacturers are worried about the sharp decline in copper prices, they are very cautious when taking goods, and they hope to replenish the stock when the copper price pulls back, and then the copper price does not show the slightest sign of correction during the week, so the downstream has to enter the market to buy a small number of high-priced sources, and the overall market transaction is very limited
.
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