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First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsDomestic aspects:
1.
Affected by the decline in the added value of the eastern region and the manufacturing industry, the added value of China's industries above designated size fell sharply in July, recording 6.
4% year-on-year, down 1.
2 percentage points from 7.
6% in the previous month, and the slowdown in industrial growth may drag down the economic growth momentum
in the next quarter.
2.
China's M2 money supply recorded 9.
2% year-on-year in July, scaring 0.
2 percentage points from 9.
4% in the previous month; new RMB loans in July were 825.
5 billion yuan, compared with 1.
54 trillion yuan in the previous month, almost halved
.
The continued tightening of the money market means that the Chinese economy is now in an era of rising debt, and the risks to the growth process are greater
.
International aspects:
1.
Boosted by strong job demand, stable inflation, low borrowing costs and other factors, US retail sales recorded 0.
5% month-on-month in July, an increase of 0.
7 percentage points from -0.
2% in the previous month, the largest increase in the whole year, marking a strong
start to consumer spending in the United States in the third quarter.
2.
The monthly rate of new housing starts in the United States in July was -4.
8%, down 12.
2 percentage points from 7.
4% in June, and the decline in the residential construction industry means that it is more difficult for builders to regain growth momentum, and the market has cooled expectations for the recovery of the US housing market in the third quarter
.
Second, this week's market trend analysis
Second, this week's market trend analysis(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (copper): This week, domestic copper prices rose rapidly after a short period of consolidation, rising by more than 1,000 yuan, and then although there was a correction, the overall is still in an
upward trend.
Taking the Yangtze River spot market as an example, according to the monitoring data of the cable network, the average copper price at the beginning of the week was 50,050 yuan / ton, and the average copper price on Friday was 50,530 yuan / ton, up 480 yuan / ton, an increase of about
0.
96%.
Macro: At the beginning of the week, the fundamentals lacked positive news guidance, the overall trend of copper prices maintained a narrow range of volatility, along with the strong recovery of US economic data, the dollar hit a one-day gain of nearly three months, copper prices continued to pullback, but the overall pullback was limited
.
Copper prices began to rise wildly in mid-week, due to the global macro economy, China's consumer demand is still in a strong period, coupled with the US dollar index deep dive and other multiple positive boosts, base metals closed higher across the board to drive copper prices
.
At the same time, the report released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics shows that from January to June 2017, the global copper market was short of 41,000 tons, and the supply shortage in 2016 was 68,000 tons.
Towards the weekend, tensions between the United States and North Korea triggered a rise in market tensions, and copper prices slowed their rally but remained high and consolidated
.
Market: this week's spot market merchants generally more cautious, procurement and stocking confidence is insufficient, because the direction of copper prices is not yet clear, demand has not improved significantly, in the current high price range, downstream users on demand procurement, the overall transaction volume is limited, but need to see signs of improvement is that with the end of the off-season, due to the expected supply side of the source of goods continue to tighten, downstream users generally favor low-priced sources, demand gradually improved
.
In terms of the recycled copper market, the sales of brass and copper have a greater impact with the strict investigation of environmental protection, and most recyclers are reluctant to sell at high prices, and are not eager to sell, and the transaction is average
.
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