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Trade Service
First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsDomestic aspects:
1.
China's official manufacturing PMI in June was 51.
7%, up 0.
5 percentage points from the previous month, above the boom-dry line for 11 consecutive months, and the above-expected growth of the official manufacturing industry showed that both supply and demand had improved, and China's economy rose
slowly.
China's Caixin manufacturing PMI recorded a three-month high in June, up 0.
8 percentage points from the previous month to 50.
4, and the return of the new manufacturing PMI above the boom and bust line showed a slight recovery in the manufacturing industry, and the downward trend of the domestic economy has eased
.
2.
China's Caixin China Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 51.
6% in June, down 1.
2 percentage points from 52.
8% in May and the second lowest in nearly 13 months
.
Dragged down by the slowdown in the service sector, the Caixin China composite PMI also hit a one-year low
in the month.
International aspects:
1.
The ISM manufacturing industry in the United States recorded 57.
8 in June, the best performance since August 2014; orders hit a three-month high and employment hit the second highest since 2011, indicating that the manufacturing industry under solid demand and sustained export growth is on a solid foundation
.
2.
The number of ADP employment in the United States increased by 158,000 in June, of which manufacturing employment recorded zero growth, and new jobs were mainly in the service sector
.
Despite the slight weakness of the small non-farm payrolls, the market remains confident
in the US labor market.
Second, this week's market trend analysis
Second, this week's market trend analysis(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (copper): This week (July 3-July 7) copper prices fell from a high level, and the price fluctuated downward during the week, taking the Yangtze River spot market as an example, according to cable network monitoring data, the average copper price at the beginning of the week was 47140 yuan / ton, and the average copper price on Friday was 46770 yuan / ton, down 370 yuan / ton, a decline of about
0.
78%.
Macro: Domestically, the latest release of China's official manufacturing PMI for June exceeded expectations, of which the construction industry prosperity index rose to the year's high, beautiful data made investors optimistic about the outlook for China's industrial metal demand, copper prices performed smoothly at the beginning of the week, but due to the re-depreciation of the yuan during the week, market caution heated up, base metals take profit pullback, copper prices fluctuated
downward 。 Abroad, the minutes of the Fed's June meeting warned that risk asset prices are too high, there are differences on when to reduce the balance sheet, the ADP employment data released on Thursday is less than expected, the dollar has recovered from a low level, in addition, the monetary policy of many central banks continues to tighten, the market is increasingly bearish, and the sentiment of the copper market has fallen
sharply.
Market: At the beginning of the week, copper prices showed a weak market and fell from the high, but the overall bullish willingness of the market is still strong, so the holders of goods have risen to the discount, making the spot copper discount range narrow rapidly
.
The maintenance news of the Jinchuan smelter has aggravated the market's expectations for the tightening of the supply source in the future, and the spot copper premium continues to rise
.
Coupled with the large number of foreign traders handing over this week, the source of imported copper flowing into the country has also decreased, further aggravating the forced shortage of supply in the domestic market, causing the good copper premium to soar to more than
100 yuan during the week.
However, although the attitude of the holders is very resolute in selling, the downstream merchants do not cooperate, with the arrival of the traditional off-season, the downstream merchants expect that the orders in the future market will decrease, so they maintain on-demand stocking, so the actual market volume is not large
.
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