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First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsInternational aspects:
1.
The US consumer price index in June was 1.
6% annualized, down 0.
3 percentage points from the previous month and the lowest since October 2016, the data once again showed benign inflation in the United States, economic growth momentum has cooled, and the Federal Reserve will worry about whether it should raise interest rates
again this year.
2.
The monthly rate of construction permits in the United States in June was 7.
4%, 12.
3 percentage points from the previous month, the largest increase since December last year to a four-month high, despite rising house prices and tight supply, the recovery of the property market continues to accumulate momentum
.
Domestic aspects:
1.
China's GDP in the second quarter was 6.
90% year-on-year, unchanged from the same period last year, but better than the expected 6.
8%; GDP continued to be strong in the second quarter, indicating that China's economy continued to grow steadily, and the bright performance eased some investors' concerns about
the downward pressure on China's economy.
2.
The sales prices of new residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China in June released by the National Bureau of Statistics increased by 10.
2% year-on-year, down 0.
2 percentage points from the previous month; among them, the year-on-year growth rate in first- and second-tier cities continued to narrow, and third- and fourth-tier cities began to make efforts, but the overall sales of new commercial housing improved from the previous month
.
Second, this week's market trend analysis
Second, this week's market trend analysis(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (copper): this week (July 17-July 21) copper prices performed well, the price of the week after the high consolidation, taking the Yangtze River spot market as an example, according to the cable network monitoring data, the average copper price at the beginning of the week was 47190 yuan / ton, the average copper price on Friday was 47710 yuan / ton, up 520 yuan / ton, an increase of about
1.
1%.
Macro: Abroad, the US dollar index has been sluggish this week, as Trump's medical reform policy has suffered another setback and his "Russiagate" incident has been deeply investigated, investors are skeptical about whether its follow-up promises can be fulfilled, and the US economic outlook may be affected; With lingering problems with U.
S.
inflation and a more cautious outlook for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year, the dollar index fell below the 94 mark this week to hit a yearly low, and the dollar index continued its decline to support copper prices
.
Domestically, China's second-quarter economic data released this week performed strongly, GDP growth and industrial added value both better than expected, indicating that China's economy continues to maintain a stable and positive trend, beautiful Chinese data has boosted the copper market demand outlook, supporting the strengthening of domestic copper prices, reported on Tuesday since the beginning of
March this year.
Market: In terms of market, the domestic spot copper market showed a tepid state
this week.
As it was the last trading day of the main Shanghai copper contract on Monday, the market activity was not good, and the rise in copper prices also limited the willingness
of downstream to enter the market.
Although copper prices remained strong in the following days, market activity heated up, as traders became more willing to enter the market, and downstream merchants mainly purchased on demand
.
However, on the whole, the downstream demand performance of the market in July this year still exceeded market expectations, so the demand side did not have much of a drag on the price
.
On the contrary, the supply situation in the domestic spot copper market has tightened this week, as upstream smelters control shipments, so the spot copper discount range this week has clearly shown signs of narrowing, and by Friday afternoon, good copper had been reported to flat water
.
In terms of supply, the demand for flat water copper and good copper during the week was better, and wet copper was not cared for, and transactions were rare
.
As far as the future market is concerned, the market is bullish, so it is expected that spot copper will gradually turn into a premium state
next week.
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