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First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsInternationally: US consumer price index 2.
2% y/y in April, 2.
4% in the previous month, 2.
3% in the forecast; US retail sales in April 0.
4% m/m, -0.
2% prior, 0.
6% estimated; The United States construction permits in April were 1.
229 million, the previous value was 1.
26 million, and the estimated estimate was 1.
27 million; the US industrial production in April was 1% month-on-month, the previous value was 0.
5%, and the estimated estimate was 0.
4%; The number of jobless claims in the United States last week was 232,000, 240,000 expected, 236,000 in the previous month, and the preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in the United States in May was 97.
7, the previous value was 97, and the forecast was 97
.
U.
S
.
housing starts fell to a six-month low in April, suggesting the pace of the U.
S.
housing recovery is slowing, but industrial output unexpectedly grew at its highest pace in three years in April, boosting investor confidence.
Domestically: According to the National Bureau of Statistics, national real estate development investment increased by 9.
3% from January to April, the highest value in two years; From January to April, the growth rate of urban fixed asset investment fell from a nine-month high of 9.
2% to 8.
9%; Total retail sales of consumer goods in April increased by 10.
7% year-on-year, which was lower than the expectation and previous value of 10.
9%; The added value of industries above designated size increased by 6.
5% year-on-year in April, slowing down by 1.
1 percentage points from March and lower than expected by 7%; Social financing fell to RMB1.
39 trillion in April, and new RMB loans increased to RMB1.
1
trillion in April.
As the global economic downturn and the impact of China's tightening on investment gradually emerged, copper prices continued to come under pressure to close lower
this week.
Second, this week's market trend analysis
Second, this week's market trend analysis(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (copper): This week (May 15-May 19) domestic copper prices fluctuated widely, and the price fluctuated after the opening of the week, and began on Thursday, the price fell from the high, and then basically maintained a slight shock trend
.
Taking the Yangtze River spot market as an example, according to cable network monitoring data, the average copper price at the beginning of the week was 45210 yuan / ton, and the average copper price on Friday was 45270 yuan / ton, up 60 yuan / ton, an increase of about
0.
13%.
Macro aspect: Domestic macro data for April, except for the cumulative retail sales of consumer goods that were flat year-on-year and expected, other data were less than expected, and the market suspected that China's latest round of economic rebound may have shown signs
of peaking.
Subsequently, the central bank increased its efforts in open market operations to release liquidity, and regulators continued to calm the panic caused by financial supervision, and the overall market sentiment temporarily eased
.
However, the start of new housing in the United States in April was less than expected, coupled with Trump's "leak door" and "fear of science gate", the market believes that the probability of Trump's impeachment this year has soared, the dollar index hit the lowest 97.
333, the macro market turmoil has resumed, and the weakening of the dollar has also provided some impetus
for the rebound of copper prices.
Market: last week's inventory increased, the domestic market circulation of goods continued to increase, at the beginning of this week, due to the entry of the delivery time, traders trading a large number of reductions, but also because the downstream manufacturers demand is very light, trading light, Tuesday, some manufacturers in the delivery period shutdown maintenance, procurement demand is weak, and traders a small amount of procurement reserve, trading is still light, Wednesday, traders shipment enthusiasm is still okay but downstream procurement willingness is still weak, Thursday, the price fell sharply, holders insisted on prices, downstream demand slightly improved, Low-price sources are favored by the market, downstream destocking continues to advance, local arrivals have increased slightly, and trading among traders has picked up
.
On the last trading day of the week, although the holders actively quoted, the downstream was still mainly wait-and-see, supply and demand were slightly deadlocked, the transaction was weak, and the premium was basically the same as the
previous day.
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