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First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsInternationally: Eurozone service PMI final value 56.
4 in April, 56.
2 in the previous month, 56.
2 in the previous value; 56.
8 in the euro area composite purchasing managers' index in April, 56.
7 in the previous month, 56.
7 in the previous value; GDP in the first quarter of the euro area final value at 1.
7%, 1.
7% in the previous month, 1.
7% in the estimate; US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index -0.
1% m/m for March, 0.
2% prior, -0.
1% estimated; The final value of the US Markit manufacturing purchasing managers' index in April was 52.
8, the previous value was 52.
8, and the estimated value was 52.
8; the number of new jobs in the US ADP in April was 177,000, the lowest
increase since October last year.
Despite the current slowdown in U.
S.
economic growth, the Fed said it remains optimistic about the outlook for the U.
S.
economy and may raise interest rates twice
more this year.
Domestically: China's Caixin manufacturing PMI 50.
3 in April, 51.
2 in the previous month, 51.
3 in the previous month; China's Caixin composite purchasing managers' index in April 51.
2, 52.
1 in the previous month; China's Caixin service PMI in April 51.
5, 52.
2 in the previous month; China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) in April was 51.
2%, lower than expected 51.
7%, and 51.
8% in the previous month, down 0.
6 percentage points from the previous month, but still in the expansion range
。 China's non-manufacturing business activity index (PMI) was 54.
0%, down 1.
1 percentage points from the previous month and 0.
5 percentage points higher than the same period last year.
China's overall slowdown in manufacturing data indicators in April has raised concerns about the outlook for metal demand, and copper prices have come under pressure to pullback
.
2.
Analysis of this month's market trend
(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (copper): This week (May 1-May 5), domestic copper prices first rose and then declined, and the performance was relatively weak
.
Taking the Yangtze River spot market as an example, the beginning of the week coincided with the May Day holiday, the domestic copper market was closed, the first day after the holiday, the price of copper fluctuated upward, and then the price fell weakly, according to cable network monitoring data, the average copper price at the beginning of the week (May 2) was 46870 yuan / ton, and the average copper price on Friday was 45270 yuan / ton, down 1600 yuan / ton, down about 3.
41
%.
Macro: China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in April was lower than expected, some analysts believe that the recent Chinese economy may show a downward trend, while the US ADP in April added 177,000 jobs, the growth rate hit a new low since October last year, investors' confidence level in the current and future economic conditions of the United States has fallen, short-term market sentiment is empty, copper prices are under pressure
。 In addition, in the context of the downturn in the real estate market and the decline in aggregate demand, it is difficult for domestic demand for copper to improve significantly, although it is currently in the traditional consumption season, but there is still a phenomenon of low peak season, investors are worried about the outlook for copper demand, copper prices are under pressure to give up the previous gains
.
Market: Affected by the continued decline in spot copper prices during the week, holders actively pushed up the premium, but the downstream is obviously unable to receive goods in the face of high prices, so the increase in the water adjustment at the beginning of this week is relatively limited, and there are even signs of a short-term decline in the afternoon, and the market transaction in the first two days is relatively flat
.
However, with the sharp decline in copper prices after that, spot copper premiums rose rapidly, and holders have unwound to make profits
.
And next week's low price is the willingness to receive goods is also strong, so the market once traded hot
.
However, this status quo did not last long, because the overall market sentiment is still bearish, the actual stock volume of downstream merchants is not very large, and they return to the wait-and-see
after completing the market procurement.
From the perspective of market supply, there are many domestic sources in the spot copper market this week, but the source of imported copper is slightly insufficient due to the closure of the arbitrage window, so the phenomenon of oversupply in the market is not obvious, and the flat water copper in the wet copper source is sought after by the market at a low price, so the transaction situation is not bad, and the price difference with the good copper source is also small
.
Overall, the spot copper market performed mediocrely
this week.
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