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First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsDomestically, the data released that the official manufacturing PMI and Caixin manufacturing PMI both rebounded
.
The average manufacturing PMI in the first half of the year was 51.
5%, 1.
7 percentage points
higher than the same period last year.
Among them, the PMI in June was 51.
7%, the second highest point
of the year.
The Caixin China manufacturing PMI rose to 50.
4 in June, returning to expansion territory
.
In summary, the pace of manufacturing expansion is steady and good, and the overall momentum of development continues well, and this indicates that China's industrial growth is in a stable upward stage
.
The good development of the manufacturing industry will also have a certain stimulating effect
on the demand for aluminum.
Abroad, the Fed has been slow to raise interest rates, the Fed's interest rate is still at a low level, and global liquidity is still sufficient
under the background of the Fed's interest rate hike.
The ISM manufacturing index rose to 57.
8 in June from 54.
9 in May, the highest since August 2014, indicating that the U.
S.
economy is in good shape
.
However, the ADP employment report showed that the number of ADP employment in the United States increased by only 158,000 in June, a significant decline from the previous month's data and less than the market expected
.
2.
Analysis of this month's market trend
(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (aluminum): This week, domestic aluminum prices fluctuated upward, represented by the Yangtze River nonferrous spot market, according to cable network monitoring data, the price of A00 aluminum ingots at the beginning of the week was 13850 yuan / ton, and the price on Friday was 13900 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan, an increase of 0.
36%.
Considering the weakening of consumption in the off-season and the continuous increase in inventory, the increase in aluminum prices may slow down
.
Macro: China's official manufacturing PMI index rebounded more than expected in June and sat above 50 for 11 consecutive months, and the official non-manufacturing PMI index in June was also better than the previous value
.
China's supply and demand situation has rebounded, indicating that domestic and foreign demand has picked up, and aluminum prices have been strongly supported
.
In addition, there has been new progress in the shutdown of illegal electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Xinjiang, Xinjiang Jiarun has an illegal production capacity of 150,000 tons, involving about 120 electrolyzers of 500 kamper, which are expected to be shut down on July 10; The supply-side reform of the electrolytic aluminum industry is still advancing in an orderly manner, and aluminum prices have risen
.
Market: This week's de-capacity policy continued to ferment, stimulating aluminum prices higher, aluminum prices in East China continued to rise a few days ago, but suppressed by the continued increase in electrolytic aluminum inventory, the continuous upward momentum was insufficient, and there was a slight decline
on Friday.
The overall transaction of the spot market this week is general, the spot quotation continued to rise in the first four days, the shippers' shipment efforts were not reduced, the downstream willingness to receive goods was not good, the market supply was more abundant, coupled with the impact of weak demand, merchants waited more, the purchase volume was relatively limited, more on-demand, and the transaction was limited
.
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