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First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsDomestically: China's GDP in the second quarter was 6.
9% year-on-year, 6.
8% expected, and 6.
9%
in the previous month.
China's second-quarter GDP was 1.
7% month-on-month, 1.
7% expected and 1.
3%
prior.
China's GDP in the first half of the year was 6.
9% year-on-year, and 6.
8%
was expected.
China's urban fixed asset investment from January to June was 8.
6% year-on-year, 8.
5% expected, and 8.
6%
in the previous month.
China's total retail sales of consumer goods in June were 11% year-on-year, 10.
6% expected and 10.
7%
in the previous month.
China's total retail sales of consumer goods from January to June were 10.
4% year-on-year, 10.
3% expected, and 10.
3%
in the previous month.
China's industrial added value above designated size in June was 7.
6% year-on-year, 6.
5% expected, and 6.
5%
in the previous month.
China's industrial added value above designated size from January to June was 6.
9% year-on-year, 6.
7% expected, and 6.
7%
in the previous month.
Internationally: The US health care bill suffered a setback in the Senate for the second time, showing that US President Trump's spending plan will face great difficulties
if it is to be passed.
The dollar suffered a setback in favor of metals
.
Eurozone June CPI year-on-year final 1.
3% versus 1.
3% expected, and the preliminary 1.
3% revised to 1.
4%.
Eurozone June core CPI year-on-year final 1.
1%, 1.
1% expected, preliminary 1.
1%.
Eurozone June CPI 0.
0% m/m vs 0.
0% expected vs.
-0.
1%
prior.
2.
Analysis of this month's market trend
(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (aluminum): This week, the domestic aluminum price trend remained weak and volatile, represented by the Yangtze River nonferrous spot market, according to cable network monitoring data, the price of A00 aluminum ingots at the beginning of the week was 14240 yuan / ton, and the price on Friday was 14190 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan, down 0.
35%.
Considering the continuous growth of market capacity and output, the market long and short game, aluminum prices are likely to rise limited, and it is expected to maintain a high volatility market next week
.
Macro: Domestically, aluminum prices have risen 13% this year, rising prices have prompted producers to restart idle capacity, resulting in increasing production, National Bureau of Statistics data show that China's primary aluminum production in June was 2.
93 million tons, an increase of 7.
4% over the same period last year, and primary aluminum production from January to June was 16.
84 million tons, an increase of 8.
8%
year-on-year.
The rising production of aluminum has aggravated market surplus concerns, the price of Shanghai aluminum has been frustrated and fell, coupled with the aluminum market entering the off-season, and the gradual reduction of new orders from enterprises, which has also put pressure
on Shanghai aluminum prices.
Abroad, global primary aluminum production rose to 5.
04 million tons in June, and Alcoa raised its forecast for China's aluminum oversupply while expecting demand growth, causing aluminum prices to fall under pressure this week, in addition, Rio Tinto Group's bauxite production reached a record high of 12.
9 million tons in the second quarter, an increase of 7% year-on-year.
Market: East China, the market speculation aluminum enterprises production sentiment gradually weakened, aluminum prices again encountered high inventory pressure, rebound momentum is insufficient, this week fell into a high shock market, the current aluminum price is at a recent high, holders of high shipments actively, the market supply is abundant, but high prices inhibit downstream procurement interest, fear of decline and wait and see more, demand enterprises buy a small amount, traders are also more cautious, market transactions are less, not as good as last week
。 South China, this week South China aluminum ingot prices are slightly better than East China, as of Friday aluminum ingot ticket price is about 14,500 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 40 yuan / ton from last Friday, the South China market is abundant, but downstream processing enterprises have fewer orders and fear of falling sentiment, the purchase volume is relatively limited, and the transaction is also inferior to last week
.
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