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First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsDomestically: China's export momentum remained good, mainly due to improved external demand and a low year-on-year base
.
Exports are expected to grow positively throughout the year, with the export situation better than in the past two years
.
The import and export data for May both exceeded expectations, indicating that domestic and foreign demand in the market is improving or boosting the metal market
.
Internationally: The Fed is already on the path of raising interest rates, and the Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates once
in June and one in September.
However, the recent non-farm payrolls data poured cold water
on the market.
Non-farm payrolls data performed poorly, and the non-ferrous metals market trend was weak
.
2.
Analysis of this month's market trend
(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (aluminum): This week, domestic aluminum prices were weak and volatile, and after opening low at the beginning of the week, they fell sharply, then rebounded to the week's high, and plunged sharply at the end of the day after a slight surge on Friday
.
Represented by the Yangtze River nonferrous spot market, according to the monitoring data of the cable network, the price of A00 aluminum ingots at the beginning of the week was 13670 yuan / ton, and the price on Friday was 13640 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan, down 0.
22%.
Macro: Domestically, the release of supply-side reform policies continues to push up aluminum prices, but there is a time difference in the implementation of policies, domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the stimulation of considerable profits, enthusiasm for starting, resulting in rapid growth of electrolytic aluminum production, the increase in production aggravates the problem of oversupply, aluminum prices are weak
.
Abroad, the unexpected weakening of the non-farm payrolls data disappointed the market, coupled with the US non-manufacturing PMI index in May and the monthly rate of durable goods orders in April were lower than expected and the previous value, US factory orders in April also fell for the first time in five months, and aluminum prices were weakened by weak data
.
Market: Aluminum prices began to weaken on Monday, which cooled the trading volume of the spot market, and the overall performance of the market was relatively flat; On Tuesday, the continued decline in aluminum prices made the market enthusiasm for receiving goods rebound, traders began to take advantage of the dip to receive goods to rise, and the transaction picked up; The spot discount continued to narrow on Wednesday, but the market circulation was abundant, the holders quoted and shipped actively, and the downstream bargain hunting, and the transaction continued to improve slightly; Aluminum prices rebounded slightly on Thursday, holders began to actively ship goods, and premium prices also increased, but downstream consumption power is limited, mainly based on traders' purchases, and the market trading situation is acceptable; On Friday, the price of aluminum was weak for one day, the enthusiasm for downstream weekend stocking was not high, only on-demand procurement, the overall trading atmosphere of the market was general, and the big dive at the end of the day aggravated the market wait-and-see sentiment
.
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