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First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsDomestic: The central bank's financial and social finance incremental statistics in May showed that the financial data of the month showed stable on-balance sheet credit growth, off-balance sheet financing continued to shrink, and broad money (M2) growth plunged
.
At the end of May, M2 increased by 9.
6% year-on-year, 0.
9 percentage points lower than the end of the previous month, and fell below 10%
for the first time in history since statistics began.
Poor data has sparked concerns about Chinese demand and is negative for metal prices
.
International: Despite the recent weakness of US inflation, the Fed still announced a 25 basis point interest rate hike, raising the federal funds rate from 0.
75%~1% to 1%~1.
25%.
This is the Fed's second rate
hike in 2017.
The interest rate hike arrived as scheduled, the dollar index was boosted, and non-ferrous metals fell
under pressure.
2.
Analysis of this month's market trend
(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (aluminum): This week, domestic aluminum prices fluctuated and fell, opened slightly lower at the beginning of the week, and then fluctuated, and the aluminum market suffered a sharp drop on Thursday's delivery day, and the price once broke
.
Represented by the Yangtze River nonferrous spot market, according to the monitoring data of the cable network, the price of A00 aluminum ingots at the beginning of the week was 13600 yuan / ton, and the price on Friday was 13460 yuan / ton, down 140 yuan, down 1.
03%.
Macro: Abroad, despite Saudi Arabia and Russia's efforts to advance the oil production reduction agreement, the United States and other non-OPEC countries are increasing crude oil supply, Libyan oil production has climbed to a four-year high, under excess pressure, oil prices have fallen for nearly four consecutive weeks, this week may record the longest streak since August 2015, the overall sentiment of commodity markets has been affected, and metal prices have been affected by the upside
。 Domestically, China's national economy data for May, although overall continued steady development, but infrastructure retreated, urban fixed asset investment growth fell to 8.
6% from January to May, concerns about reduced demand in China limited metal prices
.
Market: The spot market was active on Monday, but as aluminum prices ran high, it weakened again; On Tuesday, the spot market was abundant, and the slight stabilization of aluminum prices made holders ship positively, but the terminal was mostly wait-and-see, and traders were under pressure to ship; On Wednesday, the holders increased their shipments, the momentum of the aluminum rebound in the late morning increased the market's willingness to purchase spots, and the holders also appropriately increased the premium shipments, the transaction performance was acceptable, the price fell sharply in the afternoon, the holders have adjusted the price of shipments, and the downstream bargain slightly replenished; The sharp decline in aluminum prices on Thursday morning drove buyers and downstream receiving enthusiasm to heat up, trading is more active, although the afternoon price rebounded, the market supply is sufficient to inhibit the transaction price, the afternoon receiving enthusiasm is no longer, the market shipment is difficult; On Friday, the futures aluminum stabilized and rebounded middlemen to receive goods at the dip is still more active, coupled with the downstream near the weekend to slightly stock, the overall market transaction is acceptable
.
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