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First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsDomestic: In the first quarter of 2017, China's GDP growth accelerated to 6.
9% year-on-year, the data exceeded expectations, and both domestic and foreign demand improved, although UBS's estimated month-on-year growth rate slowed slightly
.
The analysis shows that the improvement in China's domestic demand mainly comes from infrastructure and real estate; March's retail sales data beat expectations, indicating that consumption also remained solid
.
In the first quarter of 2017, the recovery of China's actual exports also helped support economic growth, and UBS estimated that the negative drag on GDP from net exports in the fourth quarter of last year has turned positive
.
International: The National Economic Survey Report released by the US Federal Reserve on the 19th showed that from mid-February to the end of March, economic activity in the United States continued to expand moderately, and wages generally increased moderately in the context of strong labor demand
.
Xinhua News Agency reported on the 20th that the report released by the Federal Reserve on the same day was compiled according to the latest survey results of 12 regional reserve banks, also known as the "Beige Book"
.
The report shows that manufacturing activity continues to expand modestly; Motor vehicle consumption remained strong, but non-motor consumption slowed; The real estate market remains strong
.
2.
Analysis of this month's market trend
(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (aluminum): This week, the commodity market atmosphere was generally empty, and domestic aluminum prices fell first and then rose, and the overall market was weak
.
Represented by the Yangtze River nonferrous spot market, according to the monitoring data of the cable network, the price of A00 aluminum ingots at the beginning of the week was 14440 yuan / ton, and the price on Friday was 14120 yuan / ton, down 320 yuan, down 2.
22%.
Macro: This week, the news of domestic electrolytic aluminum supply-side reform continued to ferment, the 2 million tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity under construction in Xinjiang was stopped, and the domestic aluminum price opened straight up at the beginning of the week, hitting a new high since 2015, but the inventory pressure is large, aluminum prices lack substantial upward momentum, and the short-term trend is still weak
.
In addition, due to the recent geopolitical disturbance, precious metals have benefited from the surge in risk aversion, most of the base metals have declined, coupled with the strengthening of domestic banking supervision, financial deleveraging continues, resulting in the release of energy by bears, and non-ferrous metals have fallen under pressure inside and outside
.
Market: This week's spot market first suppressed and then rose, at the beginning of the week aluminum prices soared downstream feared heights, then the trading day market wait-and-see sentiment is strong, Tuesday downstream continued to wait and see, from Wednesday as the aluminum price fell to around 14,000 yuan / ton, downstream just need to start replenishing inventory to stock weekend production, traders bullish after the market also increased procurement, the market picked up and continued until Thursday
.
On the last trading day of the week, the morning holders have continued to be bullish expectations, selling at a high price, the price remains a small premium, and the steps are small, but due to the downstream replenishment weekend, the day is mainly wait-and-see, and the market is generally trading
.
In the afternoon, the aluminum price rebounded to stimulate traders' trading, but the price plunged at the end of the day, and the market trading situation became cold
.
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