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First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsInternational: The Fed announced a 25 basis point interest rate hike, and the federal funds rate was raised from 0.
5%~0.
75% to 0.
75%~1%.
Today, U.
S.
stocks rose
.
The Dow rose more than 100 points
.
The NASDAQ is only 100 points
away from the 6,000 mark.
The dollar index fell 1%.
U.
S.
bonds rose
.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell 10 basis points to 2.
5%.
The Fed said in a statement that the current policy stance will further support a stronger labor market and push inflation up sustainably to its 2 percent target
.
Domestic: Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the central bank, said at the National Two Sessions a few days ago that the fastest growth in real estate loans last year was mainly personal housing loans
.
This helps residents buy houses and helps third- and fourth-tier cities to destock, but it is easy to increase house prices in first- and second-tier cities
.
Mortgages will develop at a relatively rapid pace this year, but they do need to be properly balanced, and it is expected to slow
down appropriately as policy adjustments are made.
According to China Securities News, Zhou Xuedong, director of the central bank's business management department, said that the proportion of personal housing loans in new loans this year is expected to fall to less than 30% this year, compared with about 45% last year, in addition, its growth rate will also slow down
.
He also said that China's supervision of all aspects of bitcoin will only be strengthened this year, and institutions with serious violations can be subject to administrative penalties or closures
.
2.
Analysis of this month's market trend
(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (aluminum): According to cable network monitoring data, the trend of domestic aluminum prices this week fluctuated, and the overall price rose
slightly.
Represented by the Yangtze River nonferrous spot market, the price of A00 aluminum ingots at the beginning of the week was 13570 yuan / ton, and the price on Friday was 13600 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan, or 0.
22%.
Macro: Recent U.
S.
economic data has mostly been positive, boosting investors' bullish enthusiasm
.
In February, the United States added 235,000 non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate was 4.
7%, which cleared the way for interest rate hikes, in addition, the market's expectations for the probability of a rate hike this week have soared to about 90%, which means that even if the Fed announces a rate hike, it is difficult to make big waves in the market, the US interest rate hike bearish is digested, the dollar index continues to weaken, copper and aluminum and other base metals are supported and higher
.
However, the high level of aluminum inventory is not conducive to the rise in aluminum prices, lack of sustained rebound momentum, aluminum prices in the week upward weakness, is expected to have limited upper space, next week or still maintain volatility to stabilize the market
.
Market: At the beginning of this week, the plunge in futures made the downstream cautious, but with the arrival of the delivery day, the futures spot price spread narrowed, and the aluminum price once fell to around 13400 yuan / ton, downstream bargaining increased procurement, market trading began to become active in the second half of the week, and holders also reluctant to sell when aluminum prices
rebounded.
On Friday, the East China market was weak in the market, and the shipments of cargo holders did not weaken, but the willingness of downstream and middlemen to receive goods weakened
.
Overall, market shipments are still good, in the afternoon, with the collapse of aluminum market prices, spot discount once fell to C70 yuan / ton, holders vigorously shipped, downstream only slightly received, the market was once cold
.
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