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First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsOn the international front: U.
S.
Treasury yields rose on Thursday (Feb.
9) as optimism filled the market
after President Trump said he would unveil tax reform plans in the coming weeks.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury fell 16/32 to yield 2.
393%, 5 basis points
higher than late Wednesday.
The 30-year Treasury fell 1-2/32 to yield 3.
017%, also more than 5 basis points
higher than late Wednesday.
The yield on the U.
S.
30-year Treasury note fell to a three-week low of 2.
945% on Wednesday, and the yield on the five-year Treasury note hit a two-month low of 1.
794%
on Wednesday.
Domestic: Experts believe that economic fundamentals and inflation trends do not yet support China's current interest rate hike cycle, but from the perspective of the central bank's regulation and control, more attention to price-based regulation shows that the rise in open market interest rates has a certain degree of indicative significance: in 2017, considering the pressure of stable exchange rates, financial deleveraging, control of real estate bubbles and inflation recovery, monetary policy is still the main theme
.
2.
Analysis of this month's market trend
(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (aluminum): According to cable network monitoring data, this week's domestic aluminum prices maintained a wide range of shocks, the overall market rose, represented by the Yangtze River nonferrous spot market, the price of A00 aluminum ingots at the beginning of the week was 13330 yuan / ton, and the price on Friday was 13490 yuan / ton, up 160 yuan, an increase of 1.
2%.
Macro: Abroad, the Fed's March interest rate hike prospect is uncertain, the market maintains a cautious attitude, and the domestic aluminum price trend this week has been ups and downs
.
The fall in the US 30-year MBA mortgage rate last week reflects that the US housing market should not be optimistic, the uncertainty of US President Trump's economic policies has prompted investors to rule out the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, and aluminum prices have been affected by macro news, maintaining a wide range
.
Domestically, China has adopted monetary tightening policies to suppress market enthusiasm; And the poor market demand in the off-season and the problem of backlog in the early stage, the increase in aluminum inventory increased rapidly, and the rebound
of aluminum prices was inhibited.
On the whole, the continuous intensification of supply-side pressure and the recent capital operation and market trend performance have diverged, the short-term long-short game has intensified, and Shanghai aluminum has maintained a volatile market
.
Market: Aluminum prices are generally volatile this week
.
In the first half of the week, smelters controlled shipments, and the market supply was less, while downstream demand did not significantly improve, and the overall transaction situation was weak; Starting in the second half of the week, as aluminum prices rebounded, and inventories continued to accumulate after the holiday, traders began to ship a large number of highs, and downstream companies will wait until the Lantern Festival to start work one after another, and demand will begin to gradually recover
next week.
It is expected that after the Lantern Festival, downstream processing enterprises will resume work one after another, next week's spot trading is expected to be more active than this week, and close to delivery, spot discount is expected to continue to narrow the futures month, and it is expected that next week's spot run between 100 and flat water
.
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