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First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsDomestic: Regarding the establishment of a basic system and long-term mechanism to make the real estate market more healthy and stable, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Chen Zhenggao once again mentioned that the Central Economic Work Conference proposed to adhere to the positioning of "houses are for living, not for speculation", and comprehensively use financial, land, fiscal and taxation, investment, legislation and other means to accelerate the research and establishment of basic systems and long-term mechanisms
that conform to national conditions and adapt to market laws.
It not only curbs the real estate bubble, but also prevents big ups and downs
.
Internationally: Of the 17 Fed members, only "two or three" believe that uncertainty about fiscal policy should not delay near-term rate hikes
.
Most members said the Fed should "take some time" to wait for the fiscal policy outlook to
become clearer.
Some Fed officials warned that "interest rate policy
should not be adjusted in response to policy expectations that are unlikely to be implemented, or that may have a different effect on economic activity and inflation than currently expected after implementation," the minutes said.
”
2.
Analysis of this month's market trend
(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (aluminum): According to cable network monitoring data, the domestic aluminum price market is weak and downward this week, basically showing a pattern of external strength and internal weakness
.
Represented by the Yangtze River nonferrous spot market, the price of A00 aluminum ingots at the beginning of the week was 13850 yuan / ton, and the price on Friday was 13420 yuan / ton, down 430 yuan, or 3.
1%.
Macro: Abroad, the U.
S.
economy remained strong, CPI hit its highest level in nearly four years, and retail sales, housing and labor markets all performed better than expected
.
A number of Fed officials signaled a rate hike, and the probability of a rate hike in March has now risen to more than 40%, and the dollar has performed strongly this week, and base metals have fallen
under pressure.
Domestically, China's property market cooled in January, with the number of cities rising in house prices hitting the lowest level in a year, and mortgage growth indicators slowing
.
The relevant departments of China's Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development are carrying out real estate tax legislation aimed at curbing the real estate bubble, and the cooling of the real estate market has rekindled market demand worries, triggering profit taking of funds, and domestic Shanghai aluminum has fallen
sharply.
Market: Futures plunged this week and narrowed
discounts.
This week's aluminum prices overall first rose and then declined, the price once rose to the level above 13900 yuan / ton, buyers on Friday morning bargain price acceptance slightly improved, spot in the afternoon with the futures rebound, holders became reluctant to sell, so that the premium further raised, downstream goods slightly increased
.
In the first half of the week, with the rebound of aluminum prices, market shipments began to increase, but downstream users generally waited and watched, believing that aluminum prices still had room to fall, and the stock was only based on rigid demand, and the trading was poor; In the second half of the week, as the price fell all the way, the downstream took a slight increase at the low level, and after the price rebounded, the holders were reluctant to sell, and the market transaction showed slight signs of
improvement.
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