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First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsDomestic: According to customs statistics, in 2016, the total import and export value of China's trade in goods was 24.
33 trillion yuan, down 0.
9%
from 2015 (the same below).
Among them, exports were 13.
84 trillion yuan, down 2%; imports were 10.
49 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.
6%; The trade surplus was 3.
35 trillion yuan, narrowing by 9.
1%.
In the face of the severe and complex international trade situation, the Customs will continue to adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, resolutely implement various policies and measures to stabilize the growth of foreign trade, comprehensively deepen reform around the construction of a new open economic system, solidly promote the implementation of various customs reforms, focus on promoting the stabilization and improvement of foreign trade, and better serve the overall situation
of national economic and social development.
On the international front: The US import price index for December finally eased fears of stagnant inflation, but performed less than expected, according to a government report on January 12, and the end of the deflationary cycle helped boost Fed rate hike expectations
.
Data released by the US Department of Labor (DOL) showed that the US import price index rose 0.
4% m/m in December versus an expected increase of 0.
7% and a decline of 0.
3%
in the previous month.
2.
Analysis of this month's market trend
(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (aluminum): According to cable network monitoring data, aluminum prices rose sharply this week, represented by the Yangtze River nonferrous spot market, the price of A00 aluminum ingots at the beginning of the week was 12640 yuan / ton, and the price on Friday was 13310 yuan / ton, up 670 yuan, an increase of 5.
3%.
Macro: Recently, the domestic economic data is better than expected and the news of capacity reduction has stimulated the aluminum market to be more enthusiastic, and the aluminum price has also stood above
13200 yuan.
China's December CPI data showed moderate inflation, PPI data showed that some industries had a significant effect on capacity reduction, related commodity prices rose synchronously, and the relationship between market supply and demand gradually improved, indicating that its economy is gradually picking up
.
In addition, market rumors say that Shandong and other places electrolytic aluminum and alumina production reduction on a large scale, aluminum prices benefited from a strong rebound, breaking through 13,000, the highest increase in a single day reached 470 yuan / ton, out of the recent shock range
.
Market: The overall transaction in East China this week is light, and the high aluminum price makes the downstream willingness to receive goods weak, and the transaction situation is basically consistent
throughout the week.
Now the aluminum market downstream aluminum profile factory began to basically stop work this weekend, the production of aluminum demand is about to turn to a stagnant state, downstream stocks are affected by high aluminum prices and suppressed, it is expected that the beginning of next week in the case of a slight reduction in aluminum prices may usher in the last replenishment tide, this week inventory continues to show an increase
.
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