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First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsDomestic: On January 6, the central bank will carry out a 7-day reverse repurchase
of 10 billion yuan and 70 billion yuan in 28 days.
In addition, the central bank open market will have 240 billion reverse repurchase expiration
.
The net withdrawal of the open market was 160 billion yuan
.
The central bank made a net withdrawal of 595 billion yuan in the open market this week, compared with 375 billion yuan
last week.
Internationally: Data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that the ISM manufacturing index in the United States was 54.
7 in December versus 53.
7 expected, compared with 53.
2
in the previous month of November.
The latest data suggest that U.
S.
manufacturing continues to expand.
Construction spending, which coincided with ISM's 19% month-on-month increase, hit a decade
high.
Two major data pushed the dollar sharply higher
.
2.
Analysis of this month's market trend
(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (aluminum): According to cable network monitoring data, aluminum prices have risen and fallen this week, and the overall market is weak and volatile in the range
.
Represented by the Yangtze River nonferrous spot market, the price of A00 aluminum ingots at the beginning of the week was 12780 yuan / ton, and the price on Friday was 12680 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 100 yuan, or 0.
78%.
On the macro front, at the beginning of the new year, there was a strong correction
in the RMB.
It is reported that the offshore yuan took the lead in rising by more than 1,000 points on January 4, and the onshore yuan also strengthened, and the central price of the yuan rose by the largest
in more than a month on January 5.
Abroad, Trump's victory has been spurring populism in the United States, and a more hawkish Fed should boost potential global risk aversion, especially as concerns about the persistence of the EU's external debt are revived due to the rise of the dollar and the rise of protectionism in the United States
.
The dollar index has suffered a sharp retreat in recent days, and analysts said that the blockage of the dollar's rally is a natural correction, and the overall upward trend should soon continue
.
On the whole, the market has no good news, the aluminum price has limited room to rise and fall a few years ago, or it is still in the volatile and stable market, it is difficult to improve
.
In terms of the market, this week is the first week after the New Year's Day, the market arrival continues to increase, and inventories continue to grow, but spot futures are not obvious
.
East China market circulation supply is sufficient, holders stable shipments, and the trading period of aluminum down, middlemen and downstream cautious wait-and-see sentiment is strong, middlemen easily do not leave inventory, downstream demand remains general, after the heavy pressure of environmental protection aluminum factory did not re-start, the overall market transaction is light, showing more selling goods and buying less goods, spot premium dropped from 100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to about
20 yuan / ton.
Near the end of the year, the overall market adjusted downward, and the receivers were mostly in a wait-and-see state except for on-demand procurement, and the overall transaction was expected to continue to be weak
.
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