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First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsAbroad, U.
S.
Treasury yields rose sharply to a two-week high on Jan.
19 after data showed a solid pace of U.
S.
economic growth and Fed Chair Janet Yellen hinted last day that the Fed would raise interest rates
further.
U.
S.
housing starts rebounded more than expected in December as an improving economy boosted demand
for rental housing.
Other data released on Thursday showed that jobless claims unexpectedly fell to near a 43-year low last week, pointing to a further tightening of the labor market, which should support economic growth
this year.
In China, GDP growth in the fourth quarter exceeded market expectations and picked up for the first time in two years, and China's economy ended smoothly in 2016
.
China's GDP grew by 6.
8% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2016, beating market expectations of 6.
7% and up from 6.
7%
in the third quarter, according to data released today by the National Bureau of Statistics.
This is also the first time that China's quarterly GDP growth has picked up
since the second quarter of 2014.
For the full year 2016, GDP grew by 6.
7% year-on-year, unchanged
from expectations and the previous month.
Q4 GDP was 1.
7% qoq, 1.
7% expected, and 1.
8%
prior.
2.
Analysis of this month's market trend
(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (aluminum): According to cable network monitoring data, the overall domestic aluminum price this week maintained a high level of strong shock, represented by the Yangtze River nonferrous spot market, the price of A00 aluminum ingots at the beginning of the week was 13180 yuan / ton, and the price on Friday was 13240 yuan / ton, up 60 yuan, an increase of 0.
46%.
Macro: Abroad, the British "Brexit" plan hit the blockbuster, market concerns rekindled to suppress the rebound of aluminum prices; However, the improvement in the US housing market data has boosted investor optimism, and Lun Aluminum has benefited from the rise
.
This week, the trend of London aluminum showed a large "V" trend
.
The weekly average price is around $1805, and the market mainly focuses on the $1900 support level
.
Domestically, Shanghai aluminum failed to follow the rise of London aluminum this week, because the Spring Festival is approaching, the market risk aversion is heating up, Shanghai aluminum fell into a volatile market, the main contract is overall in the range of fluctuations, due to the smelting price, and the market circulation of the source of goods, Shanghai aluminum shock is strong
.
At present, the market is waiting for the release of China's full-year economic data, and the recent metal trend may be set before the Spring Festival, and the short-term aluminum market will maintain a volatile trend
.
Market: This week, traders have entered the rhythm of vacation, downstream enterprises Spring Festival stocking is nearing the end, the willingness to receive goods has fallen, and the market transaction is average
.
The price remained above 13,000 yuan / ton during the week, and the premium was reported at C190-C50 yuan / ton, due to the sharp rise in prices, and the holders were reluctant to sell, coupled with the arrival of the Spring Festival, the car transport was tight, and the discount began to gradually narrow
.
This week, the overall transaction in East China was light, and downstream enterprises took less goods, mainly between traders, and the mid-week ticket trading was more active
.
On the last trading day of the week, the aluminum price of the current aluminum market rose slightly, making the originally lighter market trading more cold, traders began a full holiday at the end of this week, and it is difficult to hand next week, and the market is not expected to improve
before the Spring Festival.
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