By 2040, electric vehicles will account for more than half of global car sales

According to the latest report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance BNEF, electric vehicles could account for more than
half of all buses and buses sold worldwide in the next two decades.
In mid-to-late 2020, reducing the cost of lithium-ion batteries will make electric vehicles cheaper
than cars based on internal combustion engines, the research firm said.

According to the report, sales of automobiles and diesel vehicles will continue to decline globally, as electric vehicles (EVs) increasingly account for a share of the global passenger car, bus and light commercial vehicle market, while holding a large share
of the international market.

In its 2019 EV Outlook report, BNEF said that the share of EVs in all passenger car sales worldwide could be as high as 57% by 2040, slightly higher than last year's forecast
.
The report also expects electric buses to account for 81 percent
of municipal bus sales in the same timeframe.

BNEF forecasts that global passenger car EV sales will increase from 2 million last year to 28 million in 2030 and 56 million in
2040.
Global sales of conventional passenger cars are expected to fall to 42 million units by 2040, up from about 85 million units in 2018
.

It sees policy support measures and China's ambitious EV rollout as a major global growth driver
over the next five to seven years.
However, by the second half of the 21st century, the continuous decline in the cost of lithium-ion batteries will begin to become an important driving force for the global adoption rate of electric vehicles and the deployment of stationary energy storage applications
.

Over the past decade, the average cost per kWh of lithium-ion batteries has fallen by 85%
due to economies of scale and continuous technological improvements.
As a result, BNEF expects electric vehicles to be cheaper
than internal combustion engine-based cars in almost every market in the world by the end of the 21st century.

BNEF believes that electric vehicles will increase global electricity consumption by 6.
8% in 2040, increasing demand for lithium-ion batteries to 1,748 GWh by 2030 from 151 GWh
this year.
However, it notes that the development of new mining capacity is essential to ensure that all materials used in lithium-ion batteries are available in sufficient quantities to support production
.

BNEF expects China to maintain its global leadership in EV use, accounting for 48% of global passenger car EV sales by 2025 and 26% by 2040, when many other countries will start adding EVs
to their roads.
Over the next decade, Europe will become the world's second-largest market for electric vehicles, ahead of the US market
.
According to BNEF, electrification of transport in many countries other than China will be quite slow, resulting in what it calls a "fragmented global automotive market"
.

This year's study marks the first time BNEF has focused on the commercial vehicle market
.
BNEF believes that electric models will account for 56% of light commercial vehicle sales in Europe, the US and China over the next 20 years, and EVs are expected to account for about 31% of
the mid-size commercial market over the same period.

However, EV manufacturers will struggle to enter the global heavy-duty truck market, with BNEF expecting electric models to account for only 19%
of the division's global sales by 2040.
The research firm expects that most electric heavy-duty trucks will be used for short-haul applications, while alternatives to long-haul heavy-duty trucks are more likely to use natural gas and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles
.