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This year the global solar market is likely to see something that has never happened before: contraction
.
According to the most conservative scenario simulated by Bloomberg New Energy Finance in Monday's report, the total number of solar installations in 2018 could reach 95 GW, down 3%
from the same period last year.
This potential decline is a testament to the impact
of China's solar demand in the global market.
The country decided in June this year to impose restrictions
on new installations this year.
This could lead to a global oversupply of panels and bring prices down to 24.
4 cents
per watt by the end of the year.
In turn, cheaper panels could trigger more demand, and Bloomberg expects the market to rebound
next year.
BNEF analyst Pietro Radoia said that despite China's policy headwinds, it looks like the global solar market will eventually usher in another year of growth, albeit only very
slightly.
"The new report predicts that China's global relevance will decline, and by 2020 it will account for only a quarter of total global demand, down from more than
half of 2017.
"
While the most conservative BNEF models point to a likely decline in installations this year, base case projections suggest that new solar installations worldwide are likely to remain largely unchanged
.
The most optimistic forecast points to an additional 104.
3 GW
.
A bright spot for solar this year is Japan, where the government continues to provide feed-in tariffs for projects under 2 megawatts
.
However, it may take some time for developers to secure the site and approve to connect to the grid
.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance believes that until the end of 2020, the rise in solar capacity may not be obvious
.
This year the global solar market is likely to see something that has never happened before: contraction
.
According to the most conservative scenario simulated by Bloomberg New Energy Finance in Monday's report, the total number of solar installations in 2018 could reach 95 GW, down 3%
from the same period last year.
This potential decline is a testament to the impact
of China's solar demand in the global market.
The country decided in June this year to impose restrictions
on new installations this year.
This could lead to a global oversupply of panels and bring prices down to 24.
4 cents
per watt by the end of the year.
In turn, cheaper panels could trigger more demand, and Bloomberg expects the market to rebound
next year.
BNEF analyst Pietro Radoia said that despite China's policy headwinds, it looks like the global solar market will eventually usher in another year of growth, albeit only very
slightly.
"The new report predicts that China's global relevance will decline, and by 2020 it will account for only a quarter of total global demand, down from more than
half of 2017.
"
While the most conservative BNEF models point to a likely decline in installations this year, base case projections suggest that new solar installations worldwide are likely to remain largely unchanged
.
The most optimistic forecast points to an additional 104.
3 GW
.
A bright spot for solar this year is Japan, where the government continues to provide feed-in tariffs for projects under 2 megawatts
.
However, it may take some time for developers to secure the site and approve to connect to the grid
.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance believes that until the end of 2020, the rise in solar capacity may not be obvious
.
