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Today, the People's Bank of China suspended open market reverse repurchase operations for the fourth consecutive day, and 70 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired
today.
Shanghai copper 1705 contract opened at 47620 yuan / ton, after the opening of the long market outflowed sharply, accompanied by short positions, copper prices pullback, low to 47270 yuan / ton, near the 10-day moving average to get support, and then with the iron ore, thread, hot coil and other black series of rebound, Shanghai copper bulls increased positions in, copper prices slowly recovered, at 47530 yuan / ton closed at the big white line, The position decreased by 1,728 lots to 211,000 lots, the trading volume decreased by 82,888 lots to 318,000 lots, the Shanghai copper 1706 contract increased by 7,194 lots to 120,000 lots, and the position reduction continued to move back, and the Shanghai copper index position decreased by 702 lots to 533478 lots
.
Today's Shanghai copper relies on the 10-day moving average oscillation, Shanghai copper is more willing to rise, and it is expected to break through the 20-day moving average support
in the evening.
In terms of news, the US consumer confidence index hit a new high in March, indicating that the outlook for the US economic recovery is optimistic, Trump's medical reform after the failure to turn to tax reform and infrastructure, so that the market risk appetite heated up again, China's copper raw material procurement team accepted that the copper processing fee in the second quarter fell to $80, indicating that copper mine supply recovery still takes time, multiple favorable support copper prices rise, Shanghai copper morning showed a high range to stabilize, but it cannot be ignored that the impact of tight funds and real estate regulation and control upgrades is expected to limit the rise in copper prices.
It is expected that Shanghai copper will fluctuate and recover
in the range of 47500-48000 yuan.
Pay attention to the follow-up trend of the property market
.
In terms of the market, the tight capital factor at the end of the month still prompted some traders to take the initiative to sell back funds, approaching the Qingming holiday, the downstream replenishment and preparation demand is strong, the current refined copper inventory is high, the downstream digestion of inventory process is not as expected, it is expected to limit downstream demand
.
With the recovery of copper prices, holders of quotations and shipments are more active, downstream still maintain a positive buying mentality, because the market is generally optimistic about the recovery of short-term copper prices, the market buying interest has significantly improved compared with last week, intraday Guangdong electrolytic copper trading discount slightly expanded, downstream more absorption of large discount sources, the overall trading is more active
.
Overall, the impact of the interest rate hike event will gradually be ignored by the market after that, and it will not be paid attention to again until whether to raise interest rates again this year in June
.
In the following week, there is basically nothing to focus on the market except China's official PMI data, which can be said to be a vacuum period of macro impact, which will make copper prices more affected by fundamental factors
.
The demand side has not changed much among the fundamental factors, and the most concerned is the supply disruption of the world's three major copper
mines.
Although the three major copper mines stopped production one after another, once pushing copper prices to the high point of the year, they were slowly forgotten by the market over time; And once production resumes, it will weigh on
copper prices.
