Brief review of the aluminum market on March 14

On Friday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum 2005 opened at 12850 yuan / ton
in the morning.
At the open, Shanghai aluminum weakened slightly and touched 12,745 yuan / ton, a new low since January 2017, and then Shanghai aluminum remained low in the afternoon
.
After the afternoon open, Shanghai aluminum jumped, breaking through the 5-day moving average high and touching 13015 yuan / ton, and the after-hours rise narrowed, closing at
the 5-day moving average of 12920 yuan / ton.
Holdings decreased by 1287 lots to 147754 lots, and positions in the Shanghai Aluminum Index decreased by 2842 lots to 427593 lots
.

In terms of news, the WHO announced a global pandemic of new crown pneumonia, and a full outbreak in Europe and the United States; The Fed intends to invest $5 trillion in buybacks, which has been carried out this week; The global stock market plummeted, the market panic spread, the US stock market triggered the second circuit breaker this week, and the probability of the US falling into recession increased sharply; The State Council will speed up the introduction of inclusive financial targeted RRR reductions; The State Council issued a decision on the right to approve land use, clarifying that provincial governments have greater autonomy over land other than non-arable land, and the construction of key cities will be accelerated, easing the financial pressure
on local governments.

The risk of a full-scale outbreak of the epidemic in Europe and the United States has increased sharply, black swans have occurred frequently, and market risk aversion has continued to heat up; A full-blown outbreak of the epidemic will drag down economic growth and weigh on metal consumption; At present, aluminum consumption has rebounded slowly, accumulated growth is significant, and the downside risk of aluminum prices still exists
.
It is expected that next week Shanghai aluminum will still be mainly affected by overseas macro factors, before the overseas epidemic is not controlled, the price is still under pressure, maintain a low level of volatility, running at 12700~13100 yuan / ton
.