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Brief comment on the aluminum market: Aluminum prices rushed back down, as of the close of 3 p.
m.
, the main 2109 contract of Shanghai aluminum closed down at 19540, down 20, or 0.
1%.
In the domestic market, the rise in aluminum prices is mainly due to yesterday's aluminum ingot social library and aluminum rod inventory double decline, superimposed on the second batch of aluminum reserves is not as good as market expectations, bulls are in strong sentiment, capital entry continues to push up aluminum prices
.
Henan area has not significantly accumulated the social library, mainly because some aluminum ingots are still in transit, while the inventory in the Henan electrolytic aluminum plant has also increased, and some explicit inventory has been converted into hidden inventory, and if subsequent transportation is resumed, this part of the hidden inventory may become obvious
.
However, the dominant pressure is not large, mainly because Henan rainfall makes the consumption of aluminum by local aluminum processing enterprises only backward, superimposed on the local electrolytic aluminum plant to resume production after the shutdown of production still takes a period of time, and the fundamentals are still good
marginally after the subsequent transportation is restored.
Therefore, the center of gravity of the aluminum price shock range is expected to continue to maintain an upward trend, and it is recommended to pay attention to potential risks
such as weakening macro demand, cooling down at the top level of the government, and reducing export tax rebates.
In the short term, due to the profit taking of long funds, the bullish atmosphere of the market has plummeted, the risk of high aluminum price correction has intensified, and Shanghai aluminum may fall into a volatile pullback trend again.
The main force below the focus on 19,000 support; short-term although the supply side interference is more frequent, the market arrival volume plummeted, but the implementation of the next stage of storage to a certain extent to ease the supply pressure, in addition, the continuation of recent destocking to form a certain support for aluminum prices, the overall downward range is limited, follow-up recommendations continue to pay attention to the arrival of inventory inflection point, the operation of more orders can be appropriately high and take profit, downstream for the time being, it is expected that tomorrow's spot aluminum shock falls
.
