Brief review of the aluminum market on August 5

Today's Shanghai aluminum stop falling and rebound, the main 1909 contract intraday volatility higher, once returned to above 13900, the end of the close at 13880, up 75 yuan from the previous trading day, or 0.
54%; Sino-US trade relations continue to deteriorate, the news is short, coupled with the decline in alumina prices, alumina prices in East China have now fallen below the 2500 mark, the market lacks favorable support, Shanghai aluminum rise is expected to be difficult to sustain, upward pressure still exists, chasing higher need to be cautious, the main force is still difficult to get rid of the previous 1.
37-14,000 shock range, range operation is appropriate; it is expected that tomorrow's spot aluminum or a small rise of 0-50 yuan
.

At the macro level, Trump threatened to impose 10% tariffs on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese goods from September 1; After the meeting, the market expects the probability of another 25bp rate cut in September to fall sharply, but the expectation of monetary easing has not reversed, and it is necessary to wait for a new catalyst in the future; In July, the domestic manufacturing PMI rebounded more than expected, but it was still below the boom-dry line.

On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises accelerate the launch and resumption of production capacity under the high profit level, and the production capacity growth rate is slow in the short term, but as the cost side moves down, supply pressure will gradually appear; In terms of demand, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum on August 1 was 1.
04 million tons, an increase of 05,000 tons compared with July 25, the consumption off-season re-accumulated cycle, the cost side alumina prices temporarily stabilized, short-term aluminum prices were weak, and the early short orders were recommended to be held
cautiously.