Brief review of the aluminum market on April 8

Brief comment on the aluminum market: As of the close of the day, the inner metal sector, Shanghai aluminum fell by more than 1%, as of 15:32 Beijing time, the metal outer disk rose, and Lun aluminum rose 0.
93%.

There are two main points in the logic that drove the weakening of aluminum prices in the near future, one is the unexpected release of the domestic supply side, and the other is the suppression of downstream consumption by the domestic epidemic and the disturbance of market trading sentiment
.

The domestic supply side mainly focuses on Yunnan's local electrolytic aluminum production and resumption progress continues to exceed expectations, whether it is water storage, thermal power coal storage, Baihetan hydropower station put into operation for power generation, or local policies, all of which have good support
for the resumption of production of aluminum plants.
At the same time, according to the commissioning plan of Baihetan Hydropower Station, the power generation in the first half of the year can basically meet the release of local electrolytic aluminum supply, so there is still the possibility
of further release on the local supply side in the second quarter.

In the short term, there is not much space below aluminum prices, mainly due to the expectation of strong domestic fundamentals and the support
of overseas shortage patterns.
Follow-up will focus on the progress of the domestic epidemic, the evolution of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and the arrival time of the flood season in Yunnan
.