Brief review of Shanghai aluminum on March 18

On the macro front, the Fed kept monetary policy unchanged and raised its economic growth target; The carbon neutrality policy is expected to land, the dual control policy of energy consumption in Inner Mongolia continues to deepen, and the production of electrolytic aluminum in Baotou bears the brunt;

In terms of fundamentals, SMM stocks on the 15th reported 1.
238 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from last Thursday, and the accumulation gradually slowed down; At the same time, the steel union statistics aluminum rod inventory of 253,000 tons, down 07,000 tons from last Thursday, aluminum rod instead of aluminum ingot relative advantage is significant, aluminum rod inventory is significant; aluminum prices fluctuate sharply, spot upstream and downstream into a tug-of-war, downstream just need to be traded, spot premium is weak; January to February unforged aluminum and aluminum exports 840,000 tons, December 456,000 tons
.

The recent momentum of aluminum prices continuing to rise, but also hidden pullback risk, but the concept of "carbon neutrality" is still hot, the possible production reduction expectations continue to be beneficial to the supply side of the electrolytic aluminum industry, from the medium and long-term trend, aluminum price volatility is unchanged, the overall decline space is limited, and it is still expected to break through the 18,000 mark in the later period
.
Operationally buy at a downturn, and it is expected that spot aluminum prices will fall
tomorrow.