Brief review of Shanghai aluminum on August 8

The US non-farm payrolls data for July was better than expected, the market expected the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates aggressively, the dollar index rose, and aluminum prices came under pressure
.
Recent customs data show that China's export growth accelerated in July and its trade surplus increased sharply, making positive contributions
to stabilizing the macroeconomic market.
The supply of domestic ore is still tight, and it is difficult to alleviate
the short-term supply of alumina due to various factors.
The resumption of refinery production without new production capacity continued to advance, and the supply of electrolytic aluminum continued to rise
.
The consumption off-season has appeared, and the weak demand situation is difficult to improve
in the short term.
The inventory at home and abroad is generally destocked, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots still maintains accumulation
.

From the overall trend, demand is weak in the off-season, and domestic inventories have recently shown signs
of accumulation.
Although European smelters have plans to expand production cuts, they are cautiously chasing higher
in the face of a global recession.
The idea of weak aluminum prices in the medium and long term remains unchanged, and the probability of short-term aluminum price fluctuations is large, and it is difficult for the main force of Shanghai aluminum to break through the 19,000 mark
.
Pay attention to the 18000-19000 range oscillation
.
Operationally, it is recommended to fast forward and fast out
.
It is expected that the spot aluminum price will not fluctuate much
tomorrow.